Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (58%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on October 31?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 42¢ · $355 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$354.61
$16.58
35.2¢ → 42¢
+19% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 58%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 39.5¢ | $160.3 | $150.12 | -$10.17 | 51% 626-610 (1236) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 56¢ | $101 | $100 | -$1 | 21% 300-1144 (1444) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 39.5¢ | $58.13 | $58.8 | +$0.67 | 59% 1743-1208 (2951) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $1.14 | $26.27 | +$25.13 | 36% 15325-27398 (42723) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $16.6 | $18.67 | +$2.08 | 61% 20981-13343 (34324) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $0.86 | $0.74 | -$0.12 | 57% 13602-10422 (24024) |
Invested
$160.3
Value
$150.12
PnL
-$10.17
Record
51%
626-610 (1236)
IstarothInvested
$101
Value
$100
PnL
-$1
Record
21%
300-1144 (1444)
Invested
$58.13
Value
$58.8
PnL
+$0.67
Record
59%
1743-1208 (2951)
Invested
$1.14
Value
$26.27
PnL
+$25.13
Record
36%
15325-27398 (42723)
balthazar<$100Invested
$16.6
Value
$18.67
PnL
+$2.08
Record
61%
20981-13343 (34324)
Invested
$0.86
Value
$0.74
PnL
-$0.12
Record
57%
13602-10422 (24024)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.