Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on November 5?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (42%) · Yes at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 42%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$88.32

Smart Money Entry

44.7¢ → 99.7¢

+123% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$998.22

Total Shares1,109

Combined PnL-$82.18

No7 traders

Total Value$180.15

Total Shares676

Combined PnL-$6.15

Yes — 42%No — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 36.8¢	$744.04	$669.64	-$188.15	43% 816-1062 (1878)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225	Yesavg 76.1¢	$36.84	$235.99	+$36.37	41% 2307-3348 (5655)
PO PoligarchCTR	Noavg 64.1¢	$127.48	$112.14	-$15.34	54% 10268-8884 (19152)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Yesavg 16.8¢	$67.81	$61.03	+$49.65	56% 664-524 (1188)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 4.3¢	$11.93	$35.41	+$23.48	20% 2762-10914 (13676)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 12.6¢	$40.11	$28.22	-$0.45	53% 8401-7487 (15888)
12 123987456<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$24	$21.6	+$19.42	44% 2227-2867 (5094)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 85.2¢	$11.07	$9.96	+$0.53	27% 6988-19089 (26077)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 66¢	$29.32	$1.68	-$5.81	58% 20201-14846 (35047)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$1.34	$1.34	+$0	55% 4482-3688 (8170)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 80.1¢	$5.62	$0.77	-$4.85	31% 2661-5937 (8598)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 70.1¢	$3.77	$0.59	-$3.18	58% 12017-8564 (20581)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$744.04

Value

$669.64

PnL

-$188.15

Record

43%

816-1062 (1878)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Yes

Invested

$36.84

Value

$235.99

PnL

+$36.37

Record

41%

2307-3348 (5655)

PoligarchCTR

Invested

$127.48

Value

$112.14

PnL

-$15.34

Record

54%

10268-8884 (19152)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.81

Value

$61.03

PnL

+$49.65

Record

56%

664-524 (1188)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$11.93

Value

$35.41

PnL

+$23.48

Record

20%

2762-10914 (13676)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$40.11

Value

$28.22

PnL

-$0.45

Record

53%

8401-7487 (15888)

123987456<$100

Yes

Invested

$24

Value

$21.6

PnL

+$19.42

Record

44%

2227-2867 (5094)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.07

Value

$9.96

PnL

+$0.53

Record

27%

6988-19089 (26077)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$29.32

Value

$1.68

PnL

-$5.81

Record

58%

20201-14846 (35047)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$1.34

Value

$1.34

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

4482-3688 (8170)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$5.62

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$4.85

Record

31%

2661-5937 (8598)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$3.77

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$3.18

Record

58%

12017-8564 (20581)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.