Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on November 2?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 27¢ · $233 held · ends Nov 2

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$233.04

Combined PnL

-$26.84

Smart Money Entry

27.4¢ → 27¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$197.52

Total Shares732

Combined PnL-$29.95

No1 trader

Total Value$35.52

Total Shares46

Combined PnL+$3.11

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 27.7¢	$160.24	$156.35	-$29.95	47% 695-778 (1473)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 71.1¢	$32.41	$35.52	+$3.11	56% 14204-11005 (25209)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.1¢	$33.22	$33.07	-$0.15	59% 1908-1339 (3247)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$6.6	$8.1	+$0.15	50% 1895-1867 (3762)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$160.24

Value

$156.35

PnL

-$29.95

Record

47%

695-778 (1473)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$32.41

Value

$35.52

PnL

+$3.11

Record

56%

14204-11005 (25209)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.22

Value

$33.07

PnL

-$0.15

Record

59%

1908-1339 (3247)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.6

Value

$8.1

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

1895-1867 (3762)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.0%

27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$244.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

344.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.