Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on November 6?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 35¢ · $23 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$22.75
-$43.19
Research grade
NeutralYes at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 71.5¢ | $49.35 | $20.78 | -$9.92 | 35% 1148-2091 (3239) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $13.48 | $1.76 | -$31.14 | 38% 859-1414 (2273) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $2.44 | $0.2 | -$2.13 | 13% 534-3548 (4082) |
Invested
$49.35
Value
$20.78
PnL
-$9.92
Record
35%
1148-2091 (3239)
Invested
$13.48
Value
$1.76
PnL
-$31.14
Record
38%
859-1414 (2273)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$2.44
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$2.13
Record
13%
534-3548 (4082)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.