Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on November 3?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 25¢ · $331 held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$330.63
$116.85
17.6¢ → 25¢
+42% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 17.3¢ | $143.61 | $261.76 | +$118.15 | 49% 727-744 (1471) |
BI Bilberry<$100 | Noavg 77.9¢ | $60.37 | $58.87 | -$1.5 | 53% 3388-3006 (6394) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.5¢ | $9.8 | $10 | +$0.2 | 54% 7707-6456 (14163) |
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.