Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on November 5?

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 94¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 79%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$275.89

Smart Money Entry

60.6¢ → 93.5¢

+54% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,378

Combined PnL+$381.71

Yes3 traders

Total Value$23.42

Total Shares316

Combined PnL-$105.82

No — 79%Yes — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 56.9¢	$607.33	$888.32	+$280.98	43% 818-1092 (1910)
BI Bilberry	Noavg 64.4¢	$131.12	$191.33	+$59.52	53% 3941-3503 (7444)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 57¢	$49.22	$77.83	+$28.61	48% 2187-2410 (4597)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 82.9¢	$74.29	$38.87	+$5.48	53% 8428-7501 (15929)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 94.5¢	$28.36	$28.2	-$0.16	61% 16044-10354 (26398)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 78.8¢	$69.75	$23.75	+$1.18	75% 13065-4252 (17317)
IstarothCTR	Yesavg 37.9¢	$428.04	$20.53	-$97.81	14% 513-3102 (3615)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 55.8¢	$32.35	$15.18	+$6.03	58% 20277-14893 (35170)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 91.4¢	$11.52	$11.84	+$0.33	51% 3760-3626 (7386)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 73.3¢	$29.41	$10.14	-$0.25	54% 10291-8895 (19186)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$4.83	$4.82	-$0.02	47% 2258-2536 (4794)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$10.8	$2.8	-$8	18% 4430-20777 (25207)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 95¢	$1.87	$1.88	+$0.01	31% 2678-6002 (8680)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.2¢	$0.1	$0.09	-$0.01	41% 1160-1663 (2823)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$607.33

Value

$888.32

PnL

+$280.98

Record

43%

818-1092 (1910)

Bilberry

Invested

$131.12

Value

$191.33

PnL

+$59.52

Record

53%

3941-3503 (7444)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$49.22

Value

$77.83

PnL

+$28.61

Record

48%

2187-2410 (4597)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$74.29

Value

$38.87

PnL

+$5.48

Record

53%

8428-7501 (15929)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$28.36

Value

$28.2

PnL

-$0.16

Record

61%

16044-10354 (26398)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$69.75

Value

$23.75

PnL

+$1.18

Record

75%

13065-4252 (17317)

IstarothCTR

Yes

Invested

$428.04

Value

$20.53

PnL

-$97.81

Record

14%

513-3102 (3615)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$32.35

Value

$15.18

PnL

+$6.03

Record

58%

20277-14893 (35170)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$11.52

Value

$11.84

PnL

+$0.33

Record

51%

3760-3626 (7386)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$29.41

Value

$10.14

PnL

-$0.25

Record

54%

10291-8895 (19186)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.83

Value

$4.82

PnL

-$0.02

Record

47%

2258-2536 (4794)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.8

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$8

Record

18%

4430-20777 (25207)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$1.87

Value

$1.88

PnL

+$0.01

Record

31%

2678-6002 (8680)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.01

Record

41%

1160-1663 (2823)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.