Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on November 2?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 73¢ · $425 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$425.25
-$37.8
69.8¢ → 73¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 70.4¢ | $349.28 | $329.35 | -$15.66 | 47% 696-780 (1476) |
 fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $78.59 | $58.31 | -$20.28 | 62% 1447-904 (2351) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $25.2 | $26.43 | +$1.23 | 59% 1916-1342 (3258) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $6.31 | $5.58 | -$0.73 | 56% 14213-11016 (25229) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.7¢ | $7.95 | $5.58 | -$2.36 | 18% 364-1606 (1970) |
Invested
$349.28
Value
$329.35
PnL
-$15.66
Record
47%
696-780 (1476)
fildoroCTR<$100Invested
$78.59
Value
$58.31
PnL
-$20.28
Record
62%
1447-904 (2351)
Invested
$25.2
Value
$26.43
PnL
+$1.23
Record
59%
1916-1342 (3258)
Invested
$6.31
Value
$5.58
PnL
-$0.73
Record
56%
14213-11016 (25229)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$7.95
Value
$5.58
PnL
-$2.36
Record
18%
364-1606 (1970)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.