Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on October 30?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 99¢ · $982 held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$982.31
$582.16
21¢ → 98.5¢
+369% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Yesavg 19.7¢ | $138.14 | $696.78 | +$558.64 | 47% 646-727 (1373) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Yesavg 19.5¢ | $49.34 | $225.52 | +$6.4 | 55% 369-296 (665) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Yesavg 40.3¢ | $27 | $59.6 | +$32.6 | 59% 1743-1208 (2951) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 69.4¢ | $46.43 | $0.41 | -$15.49 | 57% 13599-10421 (24020) |
Invested
$138.14
Value
$696.78
PnL
+$558.64
Record
47%
646-727 (1373)
Invested
$49.34
Value
$225.52
PnL
+$6.4
Record
55%
369-296 (665)
Invested
$27
Value
$59.6
PnL
+$32.6
Record
59%
1743-1208 (2951)
Invested
$46.43
Value
$0.41
PnL
-$15.49
Record
57%
13599-10421 (24020)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.