Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on November 1?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 63¢ · $803 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$802.78
$25.53
61.6¢ → 63¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $142.73 | $292.93 | +$81.48 | 47% 695-778 (1473) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 28¢ | $137.91 | $216.72 | +$68.65 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 55.7¢ | $66.35 | $76.21 | +$12.84 | |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 62.4¢ | $255.37 | $262.08 | +$6.71 | 59% 1908-1339 (3247) |
 fildoroCTR | Yesavg 33¢ | $77.81 | $103.74 | +$29.47 | 62% 1447-904 (2351) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Noavg 58.2¢ | $65.93 | $72.5 | -$5.89 | 54% 460-387 (847) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 36.6¢ | $51.43 | $61.81 | -$4.37 | 50% 1895-1867 (3762) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $13.36 | $9.72 | -$0.39 | 53% 6677-5876 (12553) |
Invested
$142.73
Value
$292.93
PnL
+$81.48
Record
47%
695-778 (1473)
Both legs:
Invested
$255.37
Value
$262.08
PnL
+$6.71
Record
59%
1908-1339 (3247)
fildoroCTRInvested
$77.81
Value
$103.74
PnL
+$29.47
Record
62%
1447-904 (2351)
Invested
$65.93
Value
$72.5
PnL
-$5.89
Record
54%
460-387 (847)
Invested
$51.43
Value
$61.81
PnL
-$4.37
Record
50%
1895-1867 (3762)
Invested
$13.36
Value
$9.72
PnL
-$0.39
Record
53%
6677-5876 (12553)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.