Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on November 1?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 92¢ · $725 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$725.15
-$44.19
90.2¢ → 92¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 89.6¢ | $481.18 | $493.96 | +$12.78 | 59% 1919-1349 (3268) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 93¢ | $172.87 | $171.01 | -$0.93 | 54% 466-390 (856) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 85.3¢ | $32.84 | $34.8 | +$1.96 | 56% 14220-11020 (25240) |
 fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $83.38 | $25.38 | -$58 | 62% 1447-905 (2352) |
Invested
$481.18
Value
$493.96
PnL
+$12.78
Record
59%
1919-1349 (3268)
Invested
$172.87
Value
$171.01
PnL
-$0.93
Record
54%
466-390 (856)
Invested
$32.84
Value
$34.8
PnL
+$1.96
Record
56%
14220-11020 (25240)
fildoroCTR<$100Invested
$83.38
Value
$25.38
PnL
-$58
Record
62%
1447-905 (2352)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.