Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on October 30?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 44¢ · $676 held · ends Oct 30

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$675.7

Combined PnL

$38.41

Smart Money Entry

38.8¢ → 43.5¢

+12% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$462.02

Total Shares1,087

Combined PnL+$39.9

No2 traders

Total Value$14.4

Total Shares25

Combined PnL-$1.5

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 38.8¢	$307.85	$337.21	+$29.36	47% 615-701 (1316)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 62¢	$208.27	$199.28	-$8.6	23% 288-962 (1250)
└ No leg	Noavg 62¢	$123.55	$114.59	-$9.03
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42.3¢	$84.27	$84.69	+$0.42
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 38.9¢	$114.27	$124.82	+$10.55	50% 1704-1692 (3396)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 65¢	$11.29	$9.99	-$1.3	61% 20834-13247 (34081)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 59¢	$4.61	$4.41	-$0.2	57% 13342-10199 (23541)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$307.85

Value

$337.21

PnL

+$29.36

Record

47%

615-701 (1316)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$208.27

Value

$199.28

PnL

-$8.6

Record

23%

288-962 (1250)

Both legs:

Invested

$114.27

Value

$124.82

PnL

+$10.55

Record

50%

1704-1692 (3396)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$11.29

Value

$9.99

PnL

-$1.3

Record

61%

20834-13247 (34081)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.61

Value

$4.41

PnL

-$0.2

Record

57%

13342-10199 (23541)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.