Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on October 29?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $559 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$558.94
$67.81
78.7¢ → 99.6¢
+27% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 64.1¢ | $158.21 | $234.34 | +$45.3 | 55% 324-260 (584) |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 88.2¢ | $207.34 | $223.33 | +$15.99 | 60% 1670-1125 (2795) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 86.1¢ | $38.6 | $43.9 | +$5.31 | 57% 13342-10199 (23541) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $39.74 | $39.19 | -$0.55 | 61% 20834-13247 (34081) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 88.5¢ | $16.42 | $18.18 | +$1.76 | 53% 6405-5609 (12014) |
Invested
$158.21
Value
$234.34
PnL
+$45.3
Record
55%
324-260 (584)
Invested
$207.34
Value
$223.33
PnL
+$15.99
Record
60%
1670-1125 (2795)
Invested
$38.6
Value
$43.9
PnL
+$5.31
Record
57%
13342-10199 (23541)
balthazar<$100Invested
$39.74
Value
$39.19
PnL
-$0.55
Record
61%
20834-13247 (34081)
Invested
$16.42
Value
$18.18
PnL
+$1.76
Record
53%
6405-5609 (12014)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.