Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on November 8?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 48¢ · $321 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$320.78
-$9.81
57.9¢ → 48¢
-17% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Noavg 58¢ | $314.78 | $300.62 | -$14.16 | 37% 903-1557 (2460) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 41.8¢ | $13.93 | $14.64 | +$1.76 | 58% 21689-15792 (37481) |
12 123987456<$100 | Yesavg 9.6¢ | $0.67 | $3.32 | +$2.65 | 42% 2420-3373 (5793) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Noavg 49.2¢ | $2.25 | $2.19 | -$0.06 | 54% 10730-9241 (19971) |
Invested
$314.78
Value
$300.62
PnL
-$14.16
Record
37%
903-1557 (2460)
Invested
$13.93
Value
$14.64
PnL
+$1.76
Record
58%
21689-15792 (37481)
Invested
$0.67
Value
$3.32
PnL
+$2.65
Record
42%
2420-3373 (5793)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$2.19
PnL
-$0.06
Record
54%
10730-9241 (19971)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.