Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on November 5?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 75¢ · $347 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$346.96
-$10
72¢ → 74.5¢
+4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 71.6¢ | $133.89 | $139.32 | +$5.43 | 58% 2476-1805 (4281) |
BI BilberryCTR | Yesavg 28.5¢ | $108.2 | $105.4 | -$2.8 | 53% 3758-3366 (7124) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.4¢ | $64.61 | $52.17 | -$12.45 | 44% 777-973 (1750) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $19.38 | $19.01 | -$0.2 | 15% 447-2555 (3002) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 75.8¢ | $12.92 | $12.45 | -$0.48 | 79% 12088-3268 (15356) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $7.98 | $8.14 | +$0.16 | 53% 9883-8605 (18488) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $6.7 | $6.83 | +$0.14 | 58% 18975-13958 (32933) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $3.45 | $3.65 | +$0.2 | 30% 2222-5090 (7312) |
Invested
$133.89
Value
$139.32
PnL
+$5.43
Record
58%
2476-1805 (4281)
Invested
$108.2
Value
$105.4
PnL
-$2.8
Record
53%
3758-3366 (7124)
Invested
$64.61
Value
$52.17
PnL
-$12.45
Record
44%
777-973 (1750)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$19.38
Value
$19.01
PnL
-$0.2
Record
15%
447-2555 (3002)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$12.92
Value
$12.45
PnL
-$0.48
Record
79%
12088-3268 (15356)
Invested
$7.98
Value
$8.14
PnL
+$0.16
Record
53%
9883-8605 (18488)
Invested
$6.7
Value
$6.83
PnL
+$0.14
Record
58%
18975-13958 (32933)
Invested
$3.45
Value
$3.65
PnL
+$0.2
Record
30%
2222-5090 (7312)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.