Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on November 5?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 55¢ · $715 held · ends Nov 5

Yes45¢No55¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$714.81

Combined PnL

-$14.43

Smart Money Entry

64.6¢ → 55¢

-15% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes45%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$147.82

Total Shares379

Combined PnL-$7.77

No9 traders

Total Value$300.88

Total Shares455

Combined PnL-$6.67

Yes — 10%No — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100	Noavg 58.2¢	$234.15	$266.1	+$31.95	44% 794-1005 (1799)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32.2¢	$113.5	$142.8	+$29.3
└ No leg	Noavg 58.2¢	$120.65	$123.3	+$2.65
BI BilberryCTR	Yesavg 28.5¢	$108.2	$147.82	-$7.77	53% 3821-3402 (7223)
24 241532532432	Noavg 71.6¢	$133.93	$121.55	-$12.38	58% 2490-1820 (4310)
balthazar	Noavg 55.1¢	$98.49	$106.32	+$7.83	53% 29191-26096 (55287)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 75¢	$19.38	$19.76	+$0.56	15% 459-2699 (3158)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 73¢	$14.59	$12.83	-$1.76	54% 9970-8663 (18633)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 70¢	$14	$11.8	-$2.2	53% 22496-19712 (42208)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 75.8¢	$12.92	$11.08	-$1.84	78% 12472-3601 (16073)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 56.2¢	$19.63	$9.05	+$2.39	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 54.5¢	$5.45	$5.95	+$0.5	50% 634-639 (1273)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 60¢	$26.55	$2.53	+$0.23	59% 11786-8040 (19826)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100

Invested

$234.15

Value

$266.1

PnL

+$31.95

Record

44%

794-1005 (1799)

Both legs:

Invested

$108.2

Value

$147.82

PnL

-$7.77

Record

53%

3821-3402 (7223)

241532532432

Invested

$133.93

Value

$121.55

PnL

-$12.38

Record

58%

2490-1820 (4310)

balthazar

Invested

$98.49

Value

$106.32

PnL

+$7.83

Record

53%

29191-26096 (55287)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$19.38

Value

$19.76

PnL

+$0.56

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$14.59

Value

$12.83

PnL

-$1.76

Record

54%

9970-8663 (18633)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$14

Value

$11.8

PnL

-$2.2

Record

53%

22496-19712 (42208)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$12.92

Value

$11.08

PnL

-$1.84

Record

78%

12472-3601 (16073)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$19.63

Value

$9.05

PnL

+$2.39

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$5.45

Value

$5.95

PnL

+$0.5

Record

50%

634-639 (1273)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$26.55

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.23

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.