Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on November 6?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 44¢ · $534 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 25%
1 arb excluded
$534.16
$89.26
Research grade
NeutralYes at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 27¢ | $760.89 | $278.3 | +$89.79 | 41% 825-1210 (2035) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $348.84 | $163.58 | -$8.72 | 14% 508-3080 (3588) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 73¢ | $128.65 | $102.18 | -$26.47 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 29.8¢ | $43.63 | $61.4 | +$17.75 | |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 57.4¢ | $62.34 | $61.93 | -$0.41 | 50% 9910-9917 (19827) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 54.1¢ | $57.68 | $24.08 | +$1.64 | 58% 20250-14870 (35120) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $8.03 | $6.27 | -$1.76 | 53% 23096-20320 (43416) |
Invested
$760.89
Value
$278.3
PnL
+$89.79
Record
41%
825-1210 (2035)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$348.84
Value
$163.58
PnL
-$8.72
Record
14%
508-3080 (3588)
Both legs:
Invested
$62.34
Value
$61.93
PnL
-$0.41
Record
50%
9910-9917 (19827)
Invested
$57.68
Value
$24.08
PnL
+$1.64
Record
58%
20250-14870 (35120)
Invested
$8.03
Value
$6.27
PnL
-$1.76
Record
53%
23096-20320 (43416)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.