Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on November 3?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 96¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$108.08

Smart Money Entry

89.5¢ → 95.6¢

+7% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,076

Combined PnL+$136.95

Yes2 traders

Total Value$22.31

Total Shares490

Combined PnL-$28.87

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 80.8¢	$664.86	$535.49	+$93.56	50% 2073-2066 (4139)
Lucerys	Noavg 94.5¢	$442.08	$446.29	+$4.21	79% 10898-2965 (13863)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 95¢	$102.33	$434.9	+$1.12	39% 947-1451 (2398)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 94¢	$188.59	$194.61	+$6.02	56% 593-473 (1066)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 79.9¢	$275.81	$176.22	+$28.41	47% 771-855 (1626)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 94.4¢	$72.9	$73.35	+$0.45	60% 10619-7212 (17831)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 97¢	$46.56	$46.56	+$0	45% 5722-6930 (12652)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 93.8¢	$38.06	$33.19	+$0.57	57% 17528-13093 (30621)
BI Bilberry<$100	Noavg 86¢	$20.09	$22.25	+$2.16	53% 3424-3056 (6480)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.1¢	$51.17	$22.07	-$29.1	16% 416-2180 (2596)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 93.4¢	$12.11	$12.58	+$0.47	52% 8739-7979 (16718)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 95.8¢	$101.45	$6.7	-$0	46% 1303-1505 (2808)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.34	$0.24	+$0.23	31% 2028-4546 (6574)

hello.67

Invested

$664.86

Value

$535.49

PnL

+$93.56

Record

50%

2073-2066 (4139)

Lucerys

Invested

$442.08

Value

$446.29

PnL

+$4.21

Record

79%

10898-2965 (13863)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$102.33

Value

$434.9

PnL

+$1.12

Record

39%

947-1451 (2398)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$188.59

Value

$194.61

PnL

+$6.02

Record

56%

593-473 (1066)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$275.81

Value

$176.22

PnL

+$28.41

Record

47%

771-855 (1626)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$72.9

Value

$73.35

PnL

+$0.45

Record

60%

10619-7212 (17831)

korda77<$100

Invested

$46.56

Value

$46.56

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

5722-6930 (12652)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$38.06

Value

$33.19

PnL

+$0.57

Record

57%

17528-13093 (30621)

Bilberry<$100

Invested

$20.09

Value

$22.25

PnL

+$2.16

Record

53%

3424-3056 (6480)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.17

Value

$22.07

PnL

-$29.1

Record

16%

416-2180 (2596)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$12.11

Value

$12.58

PnL

+$0.47

Record

52%

8739-7979 (16718)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$101.45

Value

$6.7

PnL

-$0

Record

46%

1303-1505 (2808)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.34

Value

$0.24

PnL

+$0.23

Record

31%

2028-4546 (6574)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 91% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.8%

95.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.