Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (92%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on November 1?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 8.0¢ · $366 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 60%
$366.35
-$6.16
56¢ → 8¢
-86% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 92%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Yesavg 38.1¢ | $133.07 | $224.01 | +$90.94 | 47% 698-782 (1480) |
24 241532532432CTR | Noavg 57.2¢ | $149.77 | $66.7 | -$83.07 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR | Noavg 53.7¢ | $42.38 | $48.21 | +$5.82 | 54% 467-391 (858) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Yesavg 68.1¢ | $35.97 | $20.2 | +$2.34 | 53% 6689-5886 (12575) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Noavg 60.4¢ | $30.29 | $7.23 | -$22.2 | 18% 365-1635 (2000) |
Invested
$133.07
Value
$224.01
PnL
+$90.94
Record
47%
698-782 (1480)
Invested
$149.77
Value
$66.7
PnL
-$83.07
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
Invested
$42.38
Value
$48.21
PnL
+$5.82
Record
54%
467-391 (858)
Invested
$35.97
Value
$20.2
PnL
+$2.34
Record
53%
6689-5886 (12575)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$30.29
Value
$7.23
PnL
-$22.2
Record
18%
365-1635 (2000)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
8.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.