Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on October 30?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 82¢ · $180 held · ends Oct 30

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$179.85

Combined PnL

-$6.02

Smart Money Entry

94.2¢ → 82.3¢

-13% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$164.32

Total Shares186

Combined PnL-$12.67

Yes3 traders

Total Value$15.52

Total Shares79

Combined PnL+$6.65

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 96.4¢	$151.33	$130.1	-$12.9	59% 1694-1159 (2853)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86.3¢	$50.53	$34.23	+$0.22	57% 13390-10234 (23624)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.3¢	$6.48	$11.24	+$4.76	56% 345-275 (620)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$0.49	$2.35	+$1.86	18% 522-2344 (2866)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.2¢	$1.9	$1.94	+$0.04	50% 1728-1714 (3442)

241532532432

Invested

$151.33

Value

$130.1

PnL

-$12.9

Record

59%

1694-1159 (2853)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$50.53

Value

$34.23

PnL

+$0.22

Record

57%

13390-10234 (23624)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.48

Value

$11.24

PnL

+$4.76

Record

56%

345-275 (620)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.49

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$1.86

Record

18%

522-2344 (2866)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.94

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

1728-1714 (3442)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.0%

82.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.