Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (61%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on October 31?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 39¢ · $288 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$288.1
-$0
Research grade
NeutralYes at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 60.4¢ | $274.33 | $256.88 | -$6.76 | 21% 295-1083 (1378) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 60.4¢ | $158.77 | $159.68 | +$1 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 39.9¢ | $104.9 | $97.19 | -$7.76 | |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 39¢ | $27.2 | $26.96 | -$0.24 | 59% 1714-1182 (2896) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $4.03 | $4.27 | +$0.24 | 57% 13427-10262 (23689) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.