Will Deportivo San Pedro win on 2026-11-15?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (64%) · Yes at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Yes99¢No1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 64%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$132.6

Smart Money Entry

83.2¢ → 98.9¢

+19% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,704

Combined PnL-$51.59

No4 traders

Total Value$27.12

Total Shares435

Combined PnL-$81.01

Yes — 64%No — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 84.4¢	$1.8K	$1.3K	+$91.69	48% 4837-5163 (10000)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 91.4¢	$1.1K	$966.2	-$158.19	52% 2600-2380 (4980)
WA WagerWizard	Yesavg 96¢	$120	$114.38	-$5.63	52% 265-240 (505)
DO donthackme<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$67.32	$79.43	+$12.12	25% 59-180 (239)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$76.7	$76.7	+$0	42% 771-1083 (1854)
tradecraft<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$28.16	$32.58	+$4.42	35% 520-949 (1469)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$25.5	$29.5	+$4	48% 44-48 (92)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 53¢	$13.99	$10.82	-$3.17	38% 1414-2288 (3702)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 51.1¢	$23	$9.9	-$13.1	53% 7612-6705 (14317)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$5.91	$3.25	-$2.66	48% 2658-2887 (5545)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 18.7¢	$65.23	$3.14	-$62.09	38% 1426-2282 (3708)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$1,797.91

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$91.69

Record

48%

4837-5163 (10000)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$1,124.39

Value

$966.2

PnL

-$158.19

Record

52%

2600-2380 (4980)

WagerWizard

Yes

Invested

$120

Value

$114.38

PnL

-$5.63

Record

52%

265-240 (505)

donthackme<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.32

Value

$79.43

PnL

+$12.12

Record

25%

59-180 (239)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.7

Value

$76.7

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

771-1083 (1854)

tradecraft<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.16

Value

$32.58

PnL

+$4.42

Record

35%

520-949 (1469)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.5

Value

$29.5

PnL

+$4

Record

48%

44-48 (92)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$13.99

Value

$10.82

PnL

-$3.17

Record

38%

1414-2288 (3702)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$23

Value

$9.9

PnL

-$13.1

Record

53%

7612-6705 (14317)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$5.91

Value

$3.25

PnL

-$2.66

Record

48%

2658-2887 (5545)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$65.23

Value

$3.14

PnL

-$62.09

Record

38%

1426-2282 (3708)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.