Volos NPS vs. AE Kifisia FC: O/U 2.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 58¢ · $22K held · ended Nov 7

Over58¢Under42¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

50.3¢ → 58¢

+15% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 58%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over58%

Under42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$19.5K

Total Shares39,785

Combined PnL-$509.01

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares5,935

Combined PnL-$681.84

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (4 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Overavg 50.3¢	$19.7K	$19.2K	-$503.01	53% 6331-5613 (11944)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 51¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$23.47	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 50.8¢	$1.7K	$974.53	-$676.52	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Overavg 50¢	$300	$294	-$6	51% 2058-1996 (4054)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$200	$200	+$0	— 1-0 (1)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$100	$102	+$0
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$100	$98	+$0
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 51¢	$102	$73	-$29	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$11.75	$11.86	+$0.11	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$10.82	$10.92	+$0.1	50% 21550-21844 (43394)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Overavg 49¢	$9.61	$9.61	+$0	53% 2699-2381 (5080)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Over

Invested

$19,694

Value

$19.2K

PnL

-$503.01

Record

53%

6331-5613 (11944)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$1,562.38

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$23.47

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,651.05

Value

$974.53

PnL

-$676.52

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over

Invested

$300

Value

$294

PnL

-$6

Record

51%

2058-1996 (4054)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

—

1-0 (1)

Both legs:

Invested

$102

Value

$73

PnL

-$29

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.75

Value

$11.86

PnL

+$0.11

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.82

Value

$10.92

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

21550-21844 (43394)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Over

Invested

$9.61

Value

$9.61

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 58%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (4 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.