Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (69%). 2 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Government shutdown by December 12?

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 31¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 13

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Sun, Dec 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 20%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$162.49

Smart Money Entry

29.6¢ → 31¢

+5% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 10 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$680.67

Total Shares2,518

Combined PnL-$65.41

No8 traders

Total Value$492.23

Total Shares689

Combined PnL-$97.09

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA pantomimeCTR	Yesavg 29.6¢	$740.85	$675.49	-$65.35	52% 1309-1224 (2533)
SU SulkingCrypto	Noavg 71¢	$138.42	$125.58	-$3.67	17% 401-2019 (2420)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F	Noavg 70¢	$166.66	$112.47	-$6.42	23% 1820-6118 (7938)
WA WarriorH	Noavg 72.1¢	$181.74	$65.17	-$14.89	17% 1371-6656 (8027)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 65.6¢	$304.04	$64.93	-$54.51	34% 19505-37099 (56604)
Istaroth	Noavg 68.9¢	$508.37	$50.03	-$18.98	13% 565-3736 (4301)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 65.5¢	$26.64	$35.78	+$3.22	19% 2941-12460 (15401)
SP SPLPB<$100	Noavg 70¢	$35	$34.5	-$1.5	24% 802-2590 (3392)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Yesavg 31.9¢	$5.24	$5.18	-$0.06	59% 6806-4825 (11631)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 70.2¢	$14.67	$3.77	-$0.34	58% 21519-15626 (37145)

pantomimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$740.85

Value

$675.49

PnL

-$65.35

Record

52%

1309-1224 (2533)

SulkingCrypto

Invested

$138.42

Value

$125.58

PnL

-$3.67

Record

17%

401-2019 (2420)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F

Invested

$166.66

Value

$112.47

PnL

-$6.42

Record

23%

1820-6118 (7938)

WarriorH

Invested

$181.74

Value

$65.17

PnL

-$14.89

Record

17%

1371-6656 (8027)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$304.04

Value

$64.93

PnL

-$54.51

Record

34%

19505-37099 (56604)

Istaroth

Invested

$508.37

Value

$50.03

PnL

-$18.98

Record

13%

565-3736 (4301)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$26.64

Value

$35.78

PnL

+$3.22

Record

19%

2941-12460 (15401)

SPLPB<$100

Invested

$35

Value

$34.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

24%

802-2590 (3392)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.24

Value

$5.18

PnL

-$0.06

Record

59%

6806-4825 (11631)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$14.67

Value

$3.77

PnL

-$0.34

Record

58%

21519-15626 (37145)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 10 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.9%

31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$204.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

304.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.