Gemini Carbon released by November 10, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 68¢ · $893 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
1 arb excluded
$892.52
-$86.23
56.1¢ → 68¢
+21% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Late
51h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Euan | Yesavg 61.1¢ | $323.6 | $265 | -$58.6 | — 0-8 (8) |
HE hell0pia | Yesavg 52.1¢ | $252.73 | $242.44 | -$10.29 | — |
 ifyouloveme | Yesavg 53.8¢ | $199.99 | $185.75 | -$14.24 | 51% 247-234 (481) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Yesavg 63.7¢ | $159.68 | $141.85 | -$17.83 | 41% 2924-4137 (7061) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 63.7¢ | $117.68 | $92.35 | -$25.33 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 28¢ | $42 | $49.5 | +$7.5 | |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Yesavg 57¢ | $57 | $50 | -$7 | 17% 10-48 (58) |
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100 | Noavg 24¢ | $7.68 | $7.48 | +$3.9 | — 2-2 (4) |
EuanInvested
$323.6
Value
$265
PnL
-$58.6
Record
—
0-8 (8)
Invested
$252.73
Value
$242.44
PnL
-$10.29
Record
—
ifyoulovemeInvested
$199.99
Value
$185.75
PnL
-$14.24
Record
51%
247-234 (481)
Invested
$159.68
Value
$141.85
PnL
-$17.83
Record
41%
2924-4137 (7061)
Both legs:
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$57
Value
$50
PnL
-$7
Record
17%
10-48 (58)
Invested
$7.68
Value
$7.48
PnL
+$3.9
Record
—
2-2 (4)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.