Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (80%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Stade Brestois 29 vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 1.5

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (54%) · Under at 20¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 8

Over80¢Under20¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 54%

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

49.2¢ → 20¢

-59% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Over 80%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over80%

Under20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares8,002

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,325

Combined PnL+$501.07

Under — 54%Over — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 59¢	$2.8K	$3.7K	+$885.4	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
RN1CTR	Underavg 62¢	$982.54	$927.72	-$54.82	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 35¢	$390.53	$599.02	+$267.24	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
PA Pan9X	Overavg 27.8¢	$234.54	$438.15	+$260.79	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 27.2¢	$338.58	$435.11	+$96.53	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
0xheavy888	Overavg 78¢	$433.82	$422.7	-$11.12	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 9.2¢	$44.19	$281.56	+$237.37	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
VE Venusian	Overavg 15.6¢	$57.18	$128.08	+$70.91	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 24.3¢	$150.82	$126.73	-$24.08	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
AN Anon455	Overavg 82¢	$205	$118.75	-$86.25	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 27.6¢	$19.29	$47.93	+$28.64	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
DA dashattackerCTR	Underavg 84.6¢	$100.49	$40.39	-$60.09	73% 3335-1228 (4563)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Overavg 76¢	$10	$7.1	-$0.5	65% 2130-1169 (3299)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$2,775.33

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$885.4

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$982.54

Value

$927.72

PnL

-$54.82

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$390.53

Value

$599.02

PnL

+$267.24

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$234.54

Value

$438.15

PnL

+$260.79

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$338.58

Value

$435.11

PnL

+$96.53

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$433.82

Value

$422.7

PnL

-$11.12

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$44.19

Value

$281.56

PnL

+$237.37

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Venusian

Over

Invested

$57.18

Value

$128.08

PnL

+$70.91

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$150.82

Value

$126.73

PnL

-$24.08

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$205

Value

$118.75

PnL

-$86.25

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.29

Value

$47.93

PnL

+$28.64

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

dashattackerCTR

Under

Invested

$100.49

Value

$40.39

PnL

-$60.09

Record

73%

3335-1228 (4563)

darkumbreon88<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$7.1

PnL

-$0.5

Record

65%

2130-1169 (3299)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Over 80%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.8%

20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$358.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

458.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.