Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-11-08?

16 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (76%) · No at 98¢ · $34K held · ended Nov 8

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 76%

Total Value

$33.7K

Combined PnL

$2.6K

Smart Money Entry

79.2¢ → 97.5¢

+23% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 21 top traders (76%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders

Total Value$33.4K

Total Shares35,202

Combined PnL+$3.1K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$304.48

Total Shares3,090

Combined PnL-$487.9

No — 76%Yes — 24%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 78.4¢	$10.8K	$13.3K	+$2.5K	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 80.5¢	$4.9K	$5.8K	+$955.21	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
RN1	Noavg 88.6¢	$6.0K	$5.4K	-$596.12	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
AN Anon455	Noavg 63¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$26.09	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 94.6¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$67.93	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
SH SharkVision	Noavg 73.4¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	+$181.98	70% 1493-625 (2118)
VE Venusian	Noavg 79.5¢	$623.99	$745.39	+$121.4	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
LI Limousin	Noavg 77.4¢	$576.55	$700.59	+$124.04	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 82.3¢	$514.93	$604.01	+$89.09	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
GC GC-P	Noavg 62¢	$849.96	$522.72	-$4.25	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
NM NM-P	Noavg 62¢	$595.03	$365.94	-$2.98	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 77.3¢	$588.34	$332.98	-$156.04	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 80.5¢	$220.03	$213.01	-$7.02	53% 15441-13720 (29161)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Yesavg 37¢	$438.55	$168.84	+$6.58	46% 30563-35669 (66232)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 59.6¢	$199.44	$127.09	+$0.14	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
AP apprentice15CTR	Yesavg 20.6¢	$426.04	$82.68	-$343.35	43% 507-674 (1181)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 91¢	$41.64	$38	-$3.64	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$43.62	$27.75	-$15.87	53% 3670-3275 (6945)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 61¢	$26	$26.21	+$0.21	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
PA Pan9XCTR	Yesavg 24.5¢	$207.56	$24.51	-$132.35	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$3.6	$0.7	-$2.9	52% 6029-5557 (11586)

Flaznorp

Invested

$10,831.36

Value

$13.3K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

MadridTime

Invested

$4,878.37

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$955.21

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

RN1

Invested

$5,963.01

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$596.12

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

Anon455

Invested

$2,090.85

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$26.09

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,098.64

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$67.93

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

SharkVision

Invested

$1,204.7

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$181.98

Record

70%

1493-625 (2118)

Venusian

Invested

$623.99

Value

$745.39

PnL

+$121.4

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

Limousin

Invested

$576.55

Value

$700.59

PnL

+$124.04

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

LightParadox

Invested

$514.93

Value

$604.01

PnL

+$89.09

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

GC-P

Invested

$849.96

Value

$522.72

PnL

-$4.25

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

NM-P

Invested

$595.03

Value

$365.94

PnL

-$2.98

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

38791873984189

Invested

$588.34

Value

$332.98

PnL

-$156.04

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$220.03

Value

$213.01

PnL

-$7.02

Record

53%

15441-13720 (29161)

LuckyLooCTR

Yes

Invested

$438.55

Value

$168.84

PnL

+$6.58

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$199.44

Value

$127.09

PnL

+$0.14

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

apprentice15CTR

Yes

Invested

$426.04

Value

$82.68

PnL

-$343.35

Record

43%

507-674 (1181)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$41.64

Value

$38

PnL

-$3.64

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.62

Value

$27.75

PnL

-$15.87

Record

53%

3670-3275 (6945)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$26

Value

$26.21

PnL

+$0.21

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

Pan9XCTR

Yes

Invested

$207.56

Value

$24.51

PnL

-$132.35

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.6

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$2.9

Record

52%

6029-5557 (11586)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 21 top traders (76%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.