Le Mans FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (46%) · Under at 85¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 8

Over16¢Under84¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 46%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$369.53

Smart Money Entry

72.8¢ → 84.5¢

+16% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over16%

Under85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,253

Combined PnL+$198.34

Over7 traders

Total Value$823.82

Total Shares2,261

Combined PnL+$171.19

Under — 46%Over — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 72.2¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$158.64	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
0X 0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39bCTR	Overavg 29¢	$463.99	$615.99	+$152	53% 232-209 (441)
0xheavy888	Underavg 72¢	$288	$348.87	+$16.07	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 78.5¢	$224.74	$234.09	+$9.35	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 29¢	$116.03	$154	+$37.97	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 69¢	$69.16	$76.68	+$7.52	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 74¢	$37	$42.25	+$5.25	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$19.67	$16.39	-$3.28	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 25¢	$25	$15.5	-$9.5	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
WA WagerWizardCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$16.49	$8.52	-$7.97	84% 15082-2932 (18014)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$7.42	$8.08	+$0.66	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
AR ARocky33<$100	Underavg 66.1¢	$6.54	$8.06	+$1.52	76% 4579-1422 (6001)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$4.02	$5.34	+$1.32	49% 1844-1936 (3780)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,010.82

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$158.64

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39bCTR

Over

Invested

$463.99

Value

$615.99

PnL

+$152

Record

53%

232-209 (441)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$288

Value

$348.87

PnL

+$16.07

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$224.74

Value

$234.09

PnL

+$9.35

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$116.03

Value

$154

PnL

+$37.97

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$69.16

Value

$76.68

PnL

+$7.52

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$37

Value

$42.25

PnL

+$5.25

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.67

Value

$16.39

PnL

-$3.28

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25

Value

$15.5

PnL

-$9.5

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

WagerWizardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.49

Value

$8.52

PnL

-$7.97

Record

84%

15082-2932 (18014)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.42

Value

$8.08

PnL

+$0.66

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

ARocky33<$100

Under

Invested

$6.54

Value

$8.06

PnL

+$1.52

Record

76%

4579-1422 (6001)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.02

Value

$5.34

PnL

+$1.32

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 85%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.