Le Havre AC vs. FC Lorient: O/U 1.5

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (53%) · Under at 89¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 8

Over12¢Under88¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 53%

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

43.6¢ → 88.5¢

+103% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 15 top traders (53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over12%

Under89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares8,449

Combined PnL+$3.0K

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares4,405

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Under — 53%Over — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 45.9¢	$1.6K	$3.0K	+$1.4K	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 54.2¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$367.14	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 34.1¢	$528.49	$1.1K	+$603.02	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 72¢	$477.33	$583.41	+$106.07	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
VE Venusian	Underavg 31.3¢	$174.48	$409.83	+$235.35	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
RN1CTR	Overavg 46.8¢	$1.5K	$358.76	$-1.1K	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 22.9¢	$91.16	$353.92	+$262.77	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
LI Limousin	Underavg 28.4¢	$54.46	$139.89	+$85.43	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 70¢	$68.53	$59.97	+$11.99	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 28.9¢	$41.54	$46.04	+$4.51	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 73.3¢	$169.88	$29.2	-$140.68	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 71.3¢	$33	$28.88	+$5.35	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 94.3¢	$54.32	$23.62	-$30.7	46% 12026-13917 (25943)
DA dashattacker<$100	Underavg 88¢	$7.48	$7.1	-$0.38	73% 3335-1228 (4563)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 28.5¢	$32.95	$4.28	-$5.1	50% 48537-48152 (96689)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,592.58

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,706.17

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$367.14

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$528.49

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$603.02

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$477.33

Value

$583.41

PnL

+$106.07

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$174.48

Value

$409.83

PnL

+$235.35

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,506.42

Value

$358.76

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$91.16

Value

$353.92

PnL

+$262.77

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$54.46

Value

$139.89

PnL

+$85.43

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$68.53

Value

$59.97

PnL

+$11.99

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$41.54

Value

$46.04

PnL

+$4.51

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$169.88

Value

$29.2

PnL

-$140.68

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33

Value

$28.88

PnL

+$5.35

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54.32

Value

$23.62

PnL

-$30.7

Record

46%

12026-13917 (25943)

dashattacker<$100

Under

Invested

$7.48

Value

$7.1

PnL

-$0.38

Record

73%

3335-1228 (4563)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$32.95

Value

$4.28

PnL

-$5.1

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 89%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 15 top traders (53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.