Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Vietnam vs. Chinese Taipei: Chinese Taipei O/U 0.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 50¢ · $366 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 100%
$365.71
$11.58
47.9¢ → 49.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallCTR | Overavg 48.6¢ | $292.83 | $298 | +$5.17 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 44.2¢ | $52.26 | $58.58 | +$6.32 | 50% 1411-1415 (2826) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $4.14 | $4.18 | +$0.04 | 41% 3040-4429 (7469) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.48 | -$0.02 | 25% 218-645 (863) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.48 | +$0.08 | 25% 217-656 (873) |
Invested
$292.83
Value
$298
PnL
+$5.17
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$52.26
Value
$58.58
PnL
+$6.32
Record
50%
1411-1415 (2826)
Invested
$4.14
Value
$4.18
PnL
+$0.04
Record
41%
3040-4429 (7469)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.48
PnL
-$0.02
Record
25%
218-645 (863)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.48
PnL
+$0.08
Record
25%
217-656 (873)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.