Uzbekistan vs. Russia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$481.95

Smart Money Entry

92.5¢ → 100¢

+8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,717

Combined PnL-$459

Under5 traders

Total Value$36.79

Total Shares1,553

Combined PnL-$22.95

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Overavg 99¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$464.6	99% 238-3 (241)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 42.6¢	$30.89	$32.65	+$1.76	46% 440-515 (955)
VE Venusian<$100	Overavg 25¢	$22.43	$26.02	+$3.59	32% 538-1125 (1663)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 68.3¢	$23.07	$21.22	-$1.85	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Underavg 50¢	$718	$9.12	-$3.88	83% 93-19 (112)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Underavg 74¢	$5	$3.27	-$1.72	40% 3254-4905 (8159)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 75¢	$3.75	$2.43	-$1.33	41% 544-784 (1328)
MA MadridTime<$100	Overavg 24¢	$1.2	$1.45	+$0.25	33% 558-1109 (1667)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$14.93	$0.75	-$14.18	47% 1583-1774 (3357)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Over

Invested

$1,534.1

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$464.6

Record

99%

238-3 (241)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$30.89

Value

$32.65

PnL

+$1.76

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

Venusian<$100

Over

Invested

$22.43

Value

$26.02

PnL

+$3.59

Record

32%

538-1125 (1663)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.07

Value

$21.22

PnL

-$1.85

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Under

Invested

$718

Value

$9.12

PnL

-$3.88

Record

83%

93-19 (112)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$3.27

PnL

-$1.72

Record

40%

3254-4905 (8159)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.75

Value

$2.43

PnL

-$1.33

Record

41%

544-784 (1328)

MadridTime<$100

Over

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$0.25

Record

33%

558-1109 (1667)

suntoriCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.93

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$14.18

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.