Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Tahiti win on 2026-11-14?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 1.1¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 14

Yes99¢No1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

20¢ → 1.1¢

-95% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares11,645

Combined PnL+$393.04

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,623

Combined PnL+$988.99

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Noavg 22.2¢	$1.6K	$2.2K	+$559.26	38% 981-1634 (2615)
poshposhARB<$100	Yesavg 88.9¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$13.8	48% 1068-1142 (2210)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 88.9¢	$1.2K	$976.68	-$263.69
└ No leg	Noavg 20.1¢	$504.21	$754.1	+$249.89
Woaifacai	Yesavg 88¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$141.7	63% 258-154 (412)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Noavg 12.8¢	$136.55	$319.57	+$183.01	51% 3856-3647 (7503)
SU suntori	Yesavg 76¢	$3.3K	$286.7	+$834.04	46% 2495-2986 (5481)
SH shiifooCTR	Noavg 5¢	$26.44	$158.66	+$132.21	61% 1418-898 (2316)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Noavg 5¢	$6	$36	+$30	10% 45-418 (463)
PA pauleta23<$100	Yesavg 59.5¢	$20	$33.25	+$13.25	40% 419-641 (1060)
CI cigarettesCTR	Noavg 20.6¢	$590.19	$31.53	-$558.66	53% 6992-6143 (13135)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Noavg 10.8¢	$8.1	$22.5	+$14.4	44% 352-457 (809)
dips.CTR<$100	Noavg 36.9¢	$25.79	$20.99	-$4.8	47% 940-1065 (2005)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Noavg 25.2¢	$13.86	$16.5	+$2.64	45% 778-952 (1730)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 29.5¢	$28.2	$0.5	+$34.97	39% 3622-5713 (9335)

topdogbigboiCTR

Invested

$1,640.43

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$559.26

Record

38%

981-1634 (2615)

poshposhARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,744.59

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$13.8

Record

48%

1068-1142 (2210)

Both legs:

Yes$1,240.3788.9¢-$263.69

No$504.2120.1¢+$249.89

Woaifacai

Yes

Invested

$1,143.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$141.7

Record

63%

258-154 (412)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Invested

$136.55

Value

$319.57

PnL

+$183.01

Record

51%

3856-3647 (7503)

suntori

Yes

Invested

$3,320.35

Value

$286.7

PnL

+$834.04

Record

46%

2495-2986 (5481)

shiifooCTR

Invested

$26.44

Value

$158.66

PnL

+$132.21

Record

61%

1418-898 (2316)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$36

PnL

+$30

Record

10%

45-418 (463)

pauleta23<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$33.25

PnL

+$13.25

Record

40%

419-641 (1060)

cigarettesCTR

Invested

$590.19

Value

$31.53

PnL

-$558.66

Record

53%

6992-6143 (13135)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Invested

$8.1

Value

$22.5

PnL

+$14.4

Record

44%

352-457 (809)

dips.CTR<$100

Invested

$25.79

Value

$20.99

PnL

-$4.8

Record

47%

940-1065 (2005)

lryyyCTR<$100

Invested

$13.86

Value

$16.5

PnL

+$2.64

Record

45%

778-952 (1730)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$28.2

Value

$0.5

PnL

+$34.97

Record

39%

3622-5713 (9335)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.2%

1.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4550.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

4650.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.