Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (82%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Suriname win on 2026-11-15?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 18¢ · $502 held · ended Nov 15

Yes82¢No18¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$502.11

Combined PnL

$81.7

Smart Money Entry

15.6¢ → 18¢

+16% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 82%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes82%

No18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$440.8

Total Shares2,008

Combined PnL+$80.49

Yes3 traders

Total Value$61.31

Total Shares75

Combined PnL+$1.22

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 15.2¢	$325.01	$402.2	+$77.19	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Yesavg 83.1¢	$55.69	$55.95	+$0.26	17% 74-354 (428)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 16.9¢	$8.18	$9.46	+$1.28	48% 2555-2763 (5318)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 15.1¢	$6.78	$6.94	+$0.16	47% 1199-1376 (2575)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$6.81	$6.58	-$0.23	41% 1189-1686 (2875)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 18.7¢	$6.28	$6.54	+$0.27	39% 1579-2471 (4050)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$3.96	$5.17	+$1.21	45% 984-1181 (2165)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$3	$3.53	+$0.52	46% 882-1039 (1921)
BL BlackMamba08<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$2.5	$3.47	+$0.97	50% 25-25 (50)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 70¢	$1.9	$1.89	-$0.01	46% 3282-3819 (7101)
GU guilttripCTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$0.3	$0.38	+$0.08	48% 29-32 (61)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$325.01

Value

$402.2

PnL

+$77.19

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

spyGoodLuck77<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.69

Value

$55.95

PnL

+$0.26

Record

17%

74-354 (428)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$8.18

Value

$9.46

PnL

+$1.28

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$6.78

Value

$6.94

PnL

+$0.16

Record

47%

1199-1376 (2575)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$6.81

Value

$6.58

PnL

-$0.23

Record

41%

1189-1686 (2875)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$6.28

Value

$6.54

PnL

+$0.27

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

lryyyCTR<$100

Invested

$3.96

Value

$5.17

PnL

+$1.21

Record

45%

984-1181 (2165)

smithagentCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$3.53

PnL

+$0.52

Record

46%

882-1039 (1921)

BlackMamba08<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.5

Value

$3.47

PnL

+$0.97

Record

50%

25-25 (50)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.89

PnL

-$0.01

Record

46%

3282-3819 (7101)

guilttripCTR<$100

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.38

PnL

+$0.08

Record

48%

29-32 (61)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 82%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance19.8%

18.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$405.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

505.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.