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NoNoYesYesYesYesNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Suriname vs. Eswatini end in a draw?
Resolved No. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 80%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$138.18
Combined PnL
-$11.39
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$13.33
Total Shares13
Combined PnL+$1.6
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares94
Combined PnL-$12.99
No — 33%Yes — 67%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $176 | $124.85 | -$51.15 | 48% 4819-5125 (9944) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 95.2¢ | $118.8 | $124.85 | +$6.05 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 13¢ | $57.2 | — | -$57.2 | |
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $11.73 | $13.33 | +$1.6 | 17% 74-356 (430) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $6.24 | — | -$6.24 | 48% 2643-2871 (5514) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $2.36 | — | -$2.36 | 39% 1657-2634 (4291) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $2.85 | — | -$2.85 | 46% 3397-3944 (7341) |
GU guilttripCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $1.54 | — | -$1.54 | 49% 32-33 (65) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles | Noavg 50¢ | $142 | — | +$0 | 63% 147-86 (233) |
FL
FlaznorpARB<$100Invested
$176
Value
$124.85
PnL
-$51.15
Record
48%
4819-5125 (9944)
Both legs:
No$118.895.2¢+$6.05
Yes$57.213¢-$57.2
SP
spyGoodLuck77<$100Invested
$11.73
Value
$13.33
PnL
+$1.6
Record
17%
74-356 (430)
FE
ferdinand2CTR<$100Invested
$6.24
Value
—
PnL
-$6.24
Record
48%
2643-2871 (5514)
TO
topdogbigboiCTR<$100Invested
$2.36
Value
—
PnL
-$2.36
Record
39%
1657-2634 (4291)
SU
suntoriCTR<$100Invested
$2.85
Value
—
PnL
-$2.85
Record
46%
3397-3944 (7341)
GU
guilttripCTR<$100Invested
$1.54
Value
—
PnL
-$1.54
Record
49%
32-33 (65)
OV
overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesInvested
$142
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
63%
147-86 (233)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x818e4766...e7e35e
Slug
fif-sur-swz-2026-11-15-draw