Will India win on 2026-11-14?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$287.12

Smart Money Entry

96.9¢ → 98.8¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$902.37

Total Shares915

Combined PnL-$253.04

Yes4 traders

Total Value$230.42

Total Shares2,169

Combined PnL-$34.08

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 97¢	$404.98	$410.9	+$5.92	47% 1088-1236 (2324)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$200	$198.6	-$1.4	66% 141-74 (215)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 96.4¢	$161.56	$165.58	+$4.02	38% 1223-2021 (3244)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 97.3¢	$1.0K	$161.45	-$266.02	38% 3756-6063 (9819)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 96.8¢	$149.76	$152.78	+$3.02	36% 595-1070 (1665)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$21.64	$13.36	-$8.27	24% 205-655 (860)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$36.27	$13.14	-$23.13	49% 4352-4620 (8972)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 98¢	$5.94	$5.89	-$0.05	59% 827-567 (1394)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 96¢	$5.69	$5.76	+$0.07	38% 1230-1969 (3199)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.5¢	$6.6	$5.32	-$1.28	41% 1124-1597 (2721)

SnakeBall

Invested

$404.98

Value

$410.9

PnL

+$5.92

Record

47%

1088-1236 (2324)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Yes

Invested

$200

Value

$198.6

PnL

-$1.4

Record

66%

141-74 (215)

LightParadox

Invested

$161.56

Value

$165.58

PnL

+$4.02

Record

38%

1223-2021 (3244)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$1,018.03

Value

$161.45

PnL

-$266.02

Record

38%

3756-6063 (9819)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$149.76

Value

$152.78

PnL

+$3.02

Record

36%

595-1070 (1665)

hi774cCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.64

Value

$13.36

PnL

-$8.27

Record

24%

205-655 (860)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.27

Value

$13.14

PnL

-$23.13

Record

49%

4352-4620 (8972)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.94

Value

$5.89

PnL

-$0.05

Record

59%

827-567 (1394)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$5.69

Value

$5.76

PnL

+$0.07

Record

38%

1230-1969 (3199)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.6

Value

$5.32

PnL

-$1.28

Record

41%

1124-1597 (2721)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.8%

98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.