Will New Zealand vs. India end in a draw?

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 96¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 20%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$139.58

Smart Money Entry

92.2¢ → 96.2¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,048

Combined PnL+$9.73

Yes8 traders

Total Value$101.12

Total Shares1,450

Combined PnL-$149.31

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 92.2¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$9.79	49% 4352-4620 (8972)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Yesavg 33.3¢	$168.03	$32.76	-$134.84	38% 3756-6063 (9819)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$30.72	$30.72	-$0	24% 205-655 (860)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.9¢	$36.83	$22.53	-$14.3	38% 1230-1969 (3199)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.5¢	$9.25	$9.85	+$0.59	41% 1124-1597 (2721)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 92¢	$5.58	$5.51	-$0.06	52% 865-790 (1655)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.8¢	$2.56	$2.35	-$0.21	46% 2978-3516 (6494)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$2	$1.62	-$0.37	38% 1223-2021 (3244)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$0.43	$0.65	+$0.22	36% 595-1070 (1665)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$1.04	$0.64	-$0.4	48% 2348-2563 (4911)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,005.68

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$9.79

Record

49%

4352-4620 (8972)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$168.03

Value

$32.76

PnL

-$134.84

Record

38%

3756-6063 (9819)

hi774cCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.72

Value

$30.72

PnL

-$0

Record

24%

205-655 (860)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.83

Value

$22.53

PnL

-$14.3

Record

38%

1230-1969 (3199)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.25

Value

$9.85

PnL

+$0.59

Record

41%

1124-1597 (2721)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.58

Value

$5.51

PnL

-$0.06

Record

52%

865-790 (1655)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.56

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.21

Record

46%

2978-3516 (6494)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.62

PnL

-$0.37

Record

38%

1223-2021 (3244)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.65

PnL

+$0.22

Record

36%

595-1070 (1665)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.64

PnL

-$0.4

Record

48%

2348-2563 (4911)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.3%

96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.