Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 4 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Malta vs. Eswatini: 1st Half O/U 0.5

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (36%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 36%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$92.96

Smart Money Entry

41.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,673

Combined PnL+$949.11

Under4 traders

Total Value$47.29

Total Shares2,184

Combined PnL-$856.15

Over — 64%Under — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 37.1¢	$751.77	$1.4K	+$786.65	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 21.1¢	$18.04	$85.62	+$67.58	33% 553-1135 (1688)
MA MadridTime<$100	Overavg 23.1¢	$19.56	$84.26	+$64.7	33% 558-1111 (1669)
VE Venusian<$100	Overavg 21¢	$7.25	$34.51	+$27.26	32% 538-1128 (1666)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$35.43	$28.59	-$6.84	32% 534-1112 (1646)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 41¢	$4.51	$7.1	+$2.59	44% 389-495 (884)
dips.CTR<$100	Underavg 2¢	$9.37	$7.05	-$2.32	45% 537-651 (1188)
DA dashattackerCTR	Underavg 65.8¢	$851.73	$6.47	-$845.26	61% 230-148 (378)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Underavg 2¢	$6.92	$5.19	-$1.73	43% 348-470 (818)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 65¢	$3.25	$3.23	-$0.02	46% 440-515 (955)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 39¢	$11.18	$2.28	+$0.35	49% 1241-1273 (2514)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$751.77

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$786.65

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$18.04

Value

$85.62

PnL

+$67.58

Record

33%

553-1135 (1688)

MadridTime<$100

Over

Invested

$19.56

Value

$84.26

PnL

+$64.7

Record

33%

558-1111 (1669)

Venusian<$100

Over

Invested

$7.25

Value

$34.51

PnL

+$27.26

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$35.43

Value

$28.59

PnL

-$6.84

Record

32%

534-1112 (1646)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$4.51

Value

$7.1

PnL

+$2.59

Record

44%

389-495 (884)

dips.CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.37

Value

$7.05

PnL

-$2.32

Record

45%

537-651 (1188)

dashattackerCTR

Under

Invested

$851.73

Value

$6.47

PnL

-$845.26

Record

61%

230-148 (378)

smithagentCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.92

Value

$5.19

PnL

-$1.73

Record

43%

348-470 (818)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.23

PnL

-$0.02

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$11.18

Value

$2.28

PnL

+$0.35

Record

49%

1241-1273 (2514)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.