Lithuania vs. Suriname: 1st Half O/U 0.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 50%
$1.1K
-$375.71
88.5¢ → 100¢
+13% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dashattacker | Underavg 95.5¢ | $1.2K | $947.13 | -$219.72 | 61% 230-148 (378) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 68¢ | $215.96 | $115.84 | -$100.12 | 51% 2545-2464 (5009) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 70¢ | $44.54 | $23.23 | -$21.32 | 56% 4488-3464 (7952) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Underavg 38¢ | $6.6 | $6.34 | -$0.26 | 33% 553-1135 (1688) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 4¢ | $19.45 | $0.24 | -$19.21 | 32% 538-1128 (1666) |
 dips.CTR<$100 | Overavg 4¢ | $5.71 | $0.07 | -$5.64 | 45% 537-651 (1188) |
SM smithagentCTR<$100 | Overavg 4¢ | $3.6 | $0.05 | -$3.56 | 43% 348-470 (818) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Overavg 12¢ | $5.91 | $0.02 | -$5.89 | 32% 534-1112 (1646) |
Invested
$1,166.85
Value
$947.13
PnL
-$219.72
Record
61%
230-148 (378)
Invested
$215.96
Value
$115.84
PnL
-$100.12
Record
51%
2545-2464 (5009)
RN1<$100Invested
$44.54
Value
$23.23
PnL
-$21.32
Record
56%
4488-3464 (7952)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$6.34
PnL
-$0.26
Record
33%
553-1135 (1688)
Invested
$19.45
Value
$0.24
PnL
-$19.21
Record
32%
538-1128 (1666)
dips.CTR<$100Invested
$5.71
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$5.64
Record
45%
537-651 (1188)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$3.56
Record
43%
348-470 (818)
Invested
$5.91
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$5.89
Record
32%
534-1112 (1646)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.