Japan vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (11%) · Over at 85¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 14

Over85¢Under15¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 11%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.9K

Combined PnL

$15.64

Research grade

NeutralOver at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 9 top traders (11%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over85%

Under16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$12.8K

Total Shares15,124

Combined PnL+$1.19

Under8 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares19,457

Combined PnL+$14.45

Over — 11%Under — 89%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZZ Zzzz87	Overavg 84.5¢	$12.8K	$12.8K	+$1.19	62% 87-54 (141)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 16¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$48.64	49% 3769-3940 (7709)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 15.2¢	$998.61	$1.0K	+$18.15	53% 2055-1798 (3853)
└ Under leg	Underavg 15.2¢	$662.95	$674.85	+$11.9
└ Over leg	Overavg 83¢	$335.67	$341.92	+$6.25
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Underavg 16¢	$439.58	$452.83	+$13.25	40% 114-172 (286)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 15.7¢	$386.43	$334.68	+$17.98	53% 1318-1151 (2469)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 15¢	$240.76	$264.83	+$24.08	23% 179-616 (795)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 15¢	$195.81	$202.33	+$6.53	37% 351-601 (952)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 15¢	$168.96	$174.59	+$5.63	59% 3761-2586 (6347)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	$35.61	$31.42	-$4.19	42% 979-1345 (2324)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Underavg 16¢	$3.04	$2.85	-$0.19	39% 3636-5765 (9401)

Zzzz87

Over

Invested

$12,778.51

Value

$12.8K

PnL

+$1.19

Record

62%

87-54 (141)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,663.59

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$48.64

Record

49%

3769-3940 (7709)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$998.61

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$18.15

Record

53%

2055-1798 (3853)

Both legs:

Under$662.9515.2¢+$11.9

Over$335.6783¢+$6.25

mouzsynapseCTR

Under

Invested

$439.58

Value

$452.83

PnL

+$13.25

Record

40%

114-172 (286)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$386.43

Value

$334.68

PnL

+$17.98

Record

53%

1318-1151 (2469)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$240.76

Value

$264.83

PnL

+$24.08

Record

23%

179-616 (795)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$195.81

Value

$202.33

PnL

+$6.53

Record

37%

351-601 (952)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$168.96

Value

$174.59

PnL

+$5.63

Record

59%

3761-2586 (6347)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$35.61

Value

$31.42

PnL

-$4.19

Record

42%

979-1345 (2324)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.04

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$0.19

Record

39%

3636-5765 (9401)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 85%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 9 top traders (11%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.