Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Brazil — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Brazil

Spread: Japan (-1.5)

Resolved Brazil. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Brazil. The smart money was right.

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Brazil 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.1K

Combined PnL

-$191.29

Brazil

2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Japan0%

Brazil100%

Brazil2 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares7,916

Combined PnL+$103.25

Japan3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,722

Combined PnL-$294.54

Brazil — 40%Japan — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PE pelik	Brazilavg 99.9¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	+$4.18	99% 1561-4 (1565)
FL Flaznorp	Brazilavg 93.1¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$99.08	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Japanavg 8.3¢	$539.96	$182.44	-$357.51	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
└ Brazil leg	Brazilavg 85¢	$155.16	$182.44	+$27.29
└ Japan leg	Japanavg 8.3¢	$384.8	—	-$384.8
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Japanavg 17¢	$289.06	—	-$289.06	40% 117-175 (292)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Japanavg 24¢	$4.8	—	-$4.8	61% 1424-903 (2327)
poshposhCTR<$100	Japanavg 36¢	$0.69	—	-$0.69	48% 1104-1175 (2279)