Will Japan win on 2026-11-14?
8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 75¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 67%
$1.6K
-$3.81
74.3¢ → 74.5¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Mature
43h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 74.7¢ | $912.76 | $664.93 | -$4.48 | 53% 1318-1151 (2469) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 74¢ | $336.37 | $338.64 | +$2.27 | 59% 3761-2586 (6347) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 74¢ | $184.39 | $183.15 | -$1.25 | 37% 351-601 (952) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 74.3¢ | $153.06 | $152.45 | -$0.61 | 55% 447-361 (808) |
 leflaiveCTR | Yesavg 25.1¢ | $113.78 | $115.52 | +$1.73 | 49% 17-18 (35) |
ZZ Zzzz87CTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $97.24 | $95.37 | -$1.87 | 62% 87-54 (141) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $48.78 | $48.78 | -$0 | 53% 2055-1798 (3853) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $8.14 | $8.2 | +$0.05 | 30% 323-769 (1092) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36.1¢ | $7.04 | $5.16 | -$1.88 | 46% 2530-3008 (5538) |
GU guilttrip<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $2.52 | $4.38 | +$1.86 | 42% 18-25 (43) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $3.67 | $3.72 | +$0.05 | 49% 3769-3940 (7709) |
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $1 | $1.3 | +$0.3 | 52% 23-21 (44) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$912.76
Value
$664.93
PnL
-$4.48
Record
53%
1318-1151 (2469)
Invested
$336.37
Value
$338.64
PnL
+$2.27
Record
59%
3761-2586 (6347)
Invested
$184.39
Value
$183.15
PnL
-$1.25
Record
37%
351-601 (952)
Invested
$153.06
Value
$152.45
PnL
-$0.61
Record
55%
447-361 (808)
leflaiveCTRInvested
$113.78
Value
$115.52
PnL
+$1.73
Record
49%
17-18 (35)
Invested
$97.24
Value
$95.37
PnL
-$1.87
Record
62%
87-54 (141)
Invested
$48.78
Value
$48.78
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
2055-1798 (3853)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$8.14
Value
$8.2
PnL
+$0.05
Record
30%
323-769 (1092)
Invested
$7.04
Value
$5.16
PnL
-$1.88
Record
46%
2530-3008 (5538)
Invested
$2.52
Value
$4.38
PnL
+$1.86
Record
42%
18-25 (43)
Invested
$3.67
Value
$3.72
PnL
+$0.05
Record
49%
3769-3940 (7709)
Invested
$1
Value
$1.3
PnL
+$0.3
Record
52%
23-21 (44)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.