Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (65%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Japan vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 36¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$7.3K
-$125.71
36.6¢ → 35.5¢
-3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 65%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH ch27er | Yesavg 64.2¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$16.08 | 32% 29-61 (90) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 37¢ | $2.3K | $2.2K | -$90.88 | 49% 3769-3940 (7709) |
FO forecastication4CTR | Noavg 35¢ | $581.25 | $581.25 | -$0 | 33% 168-335 (503) |
SU suntori | Yesavg 65¢ | $388.57 | $385.58 | -$2.99 | 46% 2530-3008 (5538) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 36.4¢ | $450.43 | $347.05 | -$9.43 | 53% 1318-1151 (2469) |
SE sentrioCTR | Noavg 38.2¢ | $327.62 | $300 | -$27.62 | 42% 979-1345 (2324) |
 leflaive | Yesavg 65¢ | $221.65 | $219.95 | -$1.71 | 49% 17-18 (35) |
GC GC-PCTR | Noavg 36¢ | $167.08 | $162.44 | -$4.64 | 37% 351-601 (952) |
NM NM-PCTR | Noavg 36¢ | $163.17 | $158.64 | -$4.53 | 59% 3761-2586 (6347) |
Invested
$3,000
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$16.08
Record
32%
29-61 (90)
Invested
$2,255.61
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$90.88
Record
49%
3769-3940 (7709)
Invested
$581.25
Value
$581.25
PnL
-$0
Record
33%
168-335 (503)
Invested
$388.57
Value
$385.58
PnL
-$2.99
Record
46%
2530-3008 (5538)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$450.43
Value
$347.05
PnL
-$9.43
Record
53%
1318-1151 (2469)
Invested
$327.62
Value
$300
PnL
-$27.62
Record
42%
979-1345 (2324)
leflaiveInvested
$221.65
Value
$219.95
PnL
-$1.71
Record
49%
17-18 (35)
Invested
$167.08
Value
$162.44
PnL
-$4.64
Record
37%
351-601 (952)
Invested
$163.17
Value
$158.64
PnL
-$4.53
Record
59%
3761-2586 (6347)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.