Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Ecuador — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Ecuador

Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)

Resolved Ecuador. 46% of the top Polymarket traders held Ecuador. The smart money was right.

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Ecuador 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Ecuador

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Ecuador100%

Costa Rica0%

Ecuador6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,757

Combined PnL-$785.86

Costa Rica7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,186

Combined PnL-$517.24

Ecuador — 46%Costa Rica — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Ecuadoravg 88.3¢	$2.3K	$1.5K	-$852.61	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
poshposh	Ecuadoravg 78.4¢	$99.09	$126.43	+$27.34	48% 1014-1101 (2115)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Costa Ricaavg 11¢	$192.2	$58	-$134.2	54% 2013-1746 (3759)
└ Ecuador leg	Ecuadoravg 50.9¢	$29.51	$58	+$28.49
└ Costa Rica leg	Costa Ricaavg 11¢	$162.69	—	-$162.69
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Ecuadoravg 54¢	$31.78	$58.8	+$27.02	56% 426-340 (766)
PE pelik<$100	Ecuadoravg 99.9¢	$51.75	$51.8	+$0.05	99% 1530-4 (1534)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Costa Ricaavg 45¢	$478.19	—	-$478.19	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
CI cigarettes<$100	Ecuadoravg 57¢	$6.44	$11.3	+$4.86	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
LR lryyy<$100	Ecuadoravg 55¢	$14.52	$11	+$7.48	45% 712-885 (1597)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Costa Ricaavg 45¢	$23.31	—	-$23.31	43% 920-1244 (2164)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Costa Ricaavg 45¢	$11.21	—	-$11.21	37% 926-1560 (2486)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Costa Ricaavg 45¢	$9	—	-$9	36% 911-1587 (2498)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Costa Ricaavg 45¢	$9	—	-$9	36% 883-1569 (2452)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Costa Ricaavg 19¢	$8.29	—	+$1.71	49% 1883-1987 (3870)
VeryLucky888CTR	Costa Ricaavg 44¢	$487.01	—	+$11.76	53% 1186-1032 (2218)