Will Malaysia win on 2026-11-14?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 85¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$3.59

Smart Money Entry

84.4¢ → 84.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$853.91

Total Shares1,018

Combined PnL-$5.64

Yes2 traders

Total Value$156.59

Total Shares1,044

Combined PnL+$2.05

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 88% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Noavg 85.4¢	$310.08	$306.87	-$3.21	34% 735-1404 (2139)
LI Limousin	Noavg 85.5¢	$222.63	$216.11	-$6.52	35% 735-1379 (2114)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 14.8¢	$145.15	$147.2	+$2.05	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
GU guilttrip	Noavg 78.8¢	$109.91	$105.73	+$5.05	57% 13-10 (23)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 84.6¢	$85.8	$85.69	-$0.11	35% 749-1385 (2134)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 84¢	$84.42	$85.43	+$1	48% 677-745 (1422)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 86¢	$47.96	$46.29	-$1.67	36% 761-1361 (2122)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$9.4	$9.4	-$0	43% 808-1065 (1873)
DV dv-pm<$100	Noavg 85¢	$7.99	$7.8	-$0.19	40% 17-26 (43)

Venusian

Invested

$310.08

Value

$306.87

PnL

-$3.21

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

Limousin

Invested

$222.63

Value

$216.11

PnL

-$6.52

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$145.15

Value

$147.2

PnL

+$2.05

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

guilttrip

Invested

$109.91

Value

$105.73

PnL

+$5.05

Record

57%

13-10 (23)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$85.8

Value

$85.69

PnL

-$0.11

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$84.42

Value

$85.43

PnL

+$1

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$47.96

Value

$46.29

PnL

-$1.67

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.4

PnL

-$0

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

dv-pm<$100

Invested

$7.99

Value

$7.8

PnL

-$0.19

Record

40%

17-26 (43)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 88% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.