Will Yemen win on 2026-11-14?
6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 84¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 60%
$1.1K
-$21.12
85.4¢ → 83.5¢
-2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 85.3¢ | $951.55 | $937.44 | -$14.12 | 54% 2013-1746 (3759) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $42.71 | $41.73 | -$0.98 | 36% 883-1569 (2452) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $38.48 | $39.68 | +$1.2 | 50% 3544-3611 (7155) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $34.4 | $34 | -$0.4 | 37% 926-1560 (2486) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $28.57 | $27.62 | -$0.95 | 46% 2359-2814 (5173) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $21.11 | $21.36 | +$0.25 | 36% 319-557 (876) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $21.11 | $21.36 | +$0.25 | 59% 3728-2540 (6268) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $15.33 | $15.51 | +$0.18 | 35% 424-772 (1196) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.3¢ | $11.33 | $4.76 | -$6.57 | 39% 3600-5658 (9258) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $0.3 | $0.32 | +$0.02 | 48% 855-936 (1791) |
Invested
$951.55
Value
$937.44
PnL
-$14.12
Record
54%
2013-1746 (3759)
Invested
$42.71
Value
$41.73
PnL
-$0.98
Record
36%
883-1569 (2452)
Invested
$38.48
Value
$39.68
PnL
+$1.2
Record
50%
3544-3611 (7155)
Invested
$34.4
Value
$34
PnL
-$0.4
Record
37%
926-1560 (2486)
Invested
$28.57
Value
$27.62
PnL
-$0.95
Record
46%
2359-2814 (5173)
Invested
$21.11
Value
$21.36
PnL
+$0.25
Record
36%
319-557 (876)
Invested
$21.11
Value
$21.36
PnL
+$0.25
Record
59%
3728-2540 (6268)
Invested
$15.33
Value
$15.51
PnL
+$0.18
Record
35%
424-772 (1196)
Invested
$11.33
Value
$4.76
PnL
-$6.57
Record
39%
3600-5658 (9258)
Invested
$0.3
Value
$0.32
PnL
+$0.02
Record
48%
855-936 (1791)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.