Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Yes — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Yes
Will Uruguay win on 2026-11-13?
Resolved Yes. 35% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
37
Yes 34%
2 arb excluded
$16.6K
$-1.3K
Smart Money Signal
13 of 37 top traders (35%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Yesavg 60.2¢ | $5.2K | $8.0K | +$2.8K | 56% 5043-4004 (9047) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 27.1¢ | $3.2K | — | $-3.2K | 54% 2013-1746 (3759) |
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 15.1¢ | $460.91 | $2.2K | +$1.7K | 50% 3526-3585 (7111) |
 ZaiZoiBele | Yesavg 91.7¢ | $2.3K | $1.8K | +$218.74 | 20% 57-231 (288) |
MO mouzsynapse | Yesavg 15¢ | $219.78 | $1.5K | +$1.2K | 39% 107-164 (271) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Yesavg 33.6¢ | $586.67 | $1.1K | +$466.29 | 51% 2364-2297 (4661) |
GC GC-PCTR | Noavg 84.3¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 36% 317-553 (870) |
 Secondhandvinyl | Yesavg 82.2¢ | $624.95 | $638.29 | +$87.46 | 74% 207-71 (278) |
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | Noavg 28.4¢ | $659.63 | $341.33 | -$318.3 | 37% 819-1385 (2204) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 37.3¢ | $127.36 | $341.33 | +$213.97 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 28.4¢ | $532.28 | — | -$532.28 | |
SE sentrio | Yesavg 15.6¢ | $77.83 | $500.33 | +$422.5 | 43% 915-1235 (2150) |
 tradecraftCTR | Noavg 84.4¢ | $136.73 | — | -$136.73 | 29% 298-747 (1045) |
SU suntori | Yesavg 65¢ | $660.36 | $312.46 | +$353.01 | 46% 2333-2789 (5122) |
 Rafifa | Yesavg 89.7¢ | $200 | $222.97 | +$22.97 | — 3-4 (7) |
 alpheclabs2CTR | Noavg 14.8¢ | $291.43 | — | -$291.43 | 45% 258-310 (568) |
 12monkeysCTR | Noavg 16¢ | $346.21 | — | -$151.47 | 38% 15-24 (39) |
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR | Noavg 28¢ | $446.32 | — | -$446.32 | 51% 3833-3620 (7453) |
TH thirdt1meARB<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $195.25 | $61.01 | -$134.24 | 48% 243-263 (506) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 84¢ | $51.25 | $61.01 | +$9.76 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 36¢ | $144 | — | -$144 | |
LI LimousinCTR | Noavg 85¢ | $758.94 | — | -$758.94 | 36% 879-1566 (2445) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Noavg 85¢ | $651.61 | — | -$651.61 | 36% 910-1584 (2494) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 83¢ | $1.5K | — | -$25.71 | 53% 1179-1029 (2208) |
CI cigarettesCTR | Noavg 35¢ | $169.94 | — | -$169.94 | 53% 6885-6020 (12905) |
SL SlickRick123CTR | Noavg 58¢ | $226.2 | — | -$226.2 | 34% 345-671 (1016) |
NO NotJumpCTR | Noavg 35.8¢ | $415.74 | — | -$170 | 53% 750-669 (1419) |
NM NM-PCTR | Noavg 83¢ | $256.73 | — | -$256.73 | 60% 3726-2536 (6262) |
VE VenusianCTR | Noavg 85.4¢ | $232.23 | — | -$232.23 | 36% 890-1596 (2486) |
RN1Invested
$5,188.77
Value
$8.0K
PnL
+$2.8K
Record
56%
5043-4004 (9047)
Invested
$3,233.42
Value
—
PnL
$-3.2K
Record
54%
2013-1746 (3759)
Invested
$460.91
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$1.7K
Record
50%
3526-3585 (7111)
ZaiZoiBeleInvested
$2,286.74
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$218.74
Record
20%
57-231 (288)
Invested
$219.78
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
39%
107-164 (271)
Invested
$586.67
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$466.29
Record
51%
2364-2297 (4661)
Invested
$1,535.97
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
36%
317-553 (870)
SecondhandvinylInvested
$624.95
Value
$638.29
PnL
+$87.46
Record
74%
207-71 (278)
Invested
$659.63
Value
$341.33
PnL
-$318.3
Record
37%
819-1385 (2204)
Both legs:
Invested
$77.83
Value
$500.33
PnL
+$422.5
Record
43%
915-1235 (2150)
tradecraftCTRInvested
$136.73
Value
—
PnL
-$136.73
Record
29%
298-747 (1045)
Invested
$660.36
Value
$312.46
PnL
+$353.01
Record
46%
2333-2789 (5122)
RafifaInvested
$200
Value
$222.97
PnL
+$22.97
Record
—
3-4 (7)
alpheclabs2CTRInvested
$291.43
Value
—
PnL
-$291.43
Record
45%
258-310 (568)
12monkeysCTRInvested
$346.21
Value
—
PnL
-$151.47
Record
38%
15-24 (39)
Invested
$446.32
Value
—
PnL
-$446.32
Record
51%
3833-3620 (7453)
Invested
$195.25
Value
$61.01
PnL
-$134.24
Record
48%
243-263 (506)
Both legs:
Invested
$758.94
Value
—
PnL
-$758.94
Record
36%
879-1566 (2445)
Invested
$651.61
Value
—
PnL
-$651.61
Record
36%
910-1584 (2494)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,485.3
Value
—
PnL
-$25.71
Record
53%
1179-1029 (2208)
Invested
$169.94
Value
—
PnL
-$169.94
Record
53%
6885-6020 (12905)
Invested
$226.2
Value
—
PnL
-$226.2
Record
34%
345-671 (1016)
Invested
$415.74
Value
—
PnL
-$170
Record
53%
750-669 (1419)
Invested
$256.73
Value
—
PnL
-$256.73
Record
60%
3726-2536 (6262)
Invested
$232.23
Value
—
PnL
-$232.23
Record
36%
890-1596 (2486)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
RN1
Yes — $8.0K
GoalLineGhost
CTRNo — $0
Flaznorp
Yes — $2.2K
ZaiZoiBele
Yes — $1.8K
mouzsynapse
Yes — $1.5K
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Yes — $1.1K
GC-P
CTRNo — $0
Secondhandvinyl
Yes — $638.29
topdogbigboi
ARBArbitrage — excluded
sentrio
Yes — $500.33