Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.
Argentina vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5
Resolved Over. 48% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
31
Under 52%
2 arb excluded
$17.9K
$-4.3K
Smart Money Signal
15 of 31 top traders (48%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH Shimi1234 | Overavg 35.4¢ | $2.4K | $6.6K | +$4.3K | 29% 7-17 (24) |
TO topdogbigboi | Overavg 57.7¢ | $2.2K | $3.7K | +$1.5K | 37% 819-1385 (2204) |
 ZaiZoiBele | Overavg 99¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$29.25 | 20% 57-231 (288) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 63.5¢ | $2.9K | — | $-2.9K | 50% 3526-3585 (7111) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 51.7¢ | $3.9K | — | $-3.9K | 54% 2013-1746 (3759) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 53.7¢ | $5.6K | $1.5K | $-4.1K | 56% 5043-4004 (9047) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 74¢ | $1.1K | $1.5K | +$388.32 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 53.7¢ | $4.5K | — | $-4.5K | |
CI cigarettes | Overavg 58.4¢ | $554.5 | $950 | +$395.5 | 53% 6885-6020 (12905) |
JA Jackenxand | Overavg 99¢ | $495 | $500 | +$5 | 100% 37-0 (37) |
 dips. | Overavg 54.8¢ | $257.57 | $467.08 | +$211.1 | 47% 860-963 (1823) |
SU suitcase6628 | Overavg 54.2¢ | $216.8 | $400 | +$183.2 | 64% 527-296 (823) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Underavg 31.2¢ | $1.3K | — | $-1.3K | 36% 910-1584 (2494) |
 poshposh | Overavg 58.2¢ | $211.52 | $363.64 | +$152.12 | 48% 1014-1100 (2114) |
SE sentrioARB<$100 | Underavg 63.4¢ | $710.25 | $237.03 | -$473.21 | 43% 915-1235 (2150) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 34¢ | $80.59 | $237.03 | +$156.44 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 63.4¢ | $629.65 | — | -$629.65 | |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Underavg 38.7¢ | $1.3K | — | $-1.3K | 37% 924-1557 (2481) |
LI LimousinCTR | Underavg 43.9¢ | $1.3K | — | $-1.3K | 36% 879-1566 (2445) |
MO mouzsynapseCTR | Underavg 27¢ | $311.16 | — | -$311.16 | 39% 107-164 (271) |
LO lonmi2511CTR | Underavg 64.2¢ | $693.68 | — | -$693.68 | 60% 702-476 (1178) |
SM smithagent<$100 | Overavg 44.6¢ | $33.8 | $75.81 | +$42.01 | 44% 599-749 (1348) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Overavg 93¢ | $48.89 | $52.57 | +$3.68 | 78% 780-220 (1000) |
 LonnieHawkinss<$100 | Overavg 69.6¢ | $30.26 | $43.46 | +$13.2 | 52% 26-24 (50) |
VE VenusianCTR | Underavg 29.5¢ | $107.69 | — | -$107.69 | 36% 890-1596 (2486) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Overavg 57¢ | $12.54 | $22 | +$9.46 | 45% 706-873 (1579) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 25.3¢ | $37.03 | — | -$37.03 | 53% 1179-1029 (2208) |
US User7429<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $5.88 | $12.51 | +$6.63 | 39% 293-459 (752) |
 SecondhandvinylCTR<$100 | Underavg 49.5¢ | $64.72 | — | -$64.72 | 74% 207-71 (278) |
Invested
$2,350
Value
$6.6K
PnL
+$4.3K
Record
29%
7-17 (24)
Invested
$2,195.85
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
37%
819-1385 (2204)
ZaiZoiBeleInvested
$2,896.01
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$29.25
Record
20%
57-231 (288)
Invested
$2,940.29
Value
—
PnL
$-2.9K
Record
50%
3526-3585 (7111)
Invested
$3,870.44
Value
—
PnL
$-3.9K
Record
54%
2013-1746 (3759)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$5,613.33
Value
$1.5K
PnL
$-4.1K
Record
56%
5043-4004 (9047)
Both legs:
Invested
$554.5
Value
$950
PnL
+$395.5
Record
53%
6885-6020 (12905)
Invested
$495
Value
$500
PnL
+$5
Record
100%
37-0 (37)
dips.Invested
$257.57
Value
$467.08
PnL
+$211.1
Record
47%
860-963 (1823)
Invested
$216.8
Value
$400
PnL
+$183.2
Record
64%
527-296 (823)
Invested
$1,308.28
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
36%
910-1584 (2494)
poshposhInvested
$211.52
Value
$363.64
PnL
+$152.12
Record
48%
1014-1100 (2114)
Invested
$710.25
Value
$237.03
PnL
-$473.21
Record
43%
915-1235 (2150)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,278.49
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
37%
924-1557 (2481)
Invested
$1,285.51
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
36%
879-1566 (2445)
Invested
$311.16
Value
—
PnL
-$311.16
Record
39%
107-164 (271)
Invested
$693.68
Value
—
PnL
-$693.68
Record
60%
702-476 (1178)
Invested
$33.8
Value
$75.81
PnL
+$42.01
Record
44%
599-749 (1348)
Invested
$48.89
Value
$52.57
PnL
+$3.68
Record
78%
780-220 (1000)
LonnieHawkinss<$100Invested
$30.26
Value
$43.46
PnL
+$13.2
Record
52%
26-24 (50)
Invested
$107.69
Value
—
PnL
-$107.69
Record
36%
890-1596 (2486)
Invested
$12.54
Value
$22
PnL
+$9.46
Record
45%
706-873 (1579)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$37.03
Value
—
PnL
-$37.03
Record
53%
1179-1029 (2208)
Invested
$5.88
Value
$12.51
PnL
+$6.63
Record
39%
293-459 (752)
SecondhandvinylCTR<$100Invested
$64.72
Value
—
PnL
-$64.72
Record
74%
207-71 (278)