Spread: Argentina (-1.5)
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Uruguay (25%) · Uruguay at 67¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Uruguay
8
Uruguay 25%
$1.5K
-$13.08
66.4¢ → 66.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUruguay at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Uruguay. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MU Multicoloured-Serf | Uruguayavg 66.6¢ | $546.48 | $541.57 | -$4.91 | 49% 611-642 (1253) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR | Argentinaavg 33.7¢ | $487.03 | $477.2 | -$9.83 | 6% 17-277 (294) |
 VeryLucky888 | Uruguayavg 66¢ | $335.1 | $330 | +$0 | 53% 1030-921 (1951) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Argentinaavg 33¢ | $44.02 | $44.02 | -$0 | 54% 1849-1555 (3404) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Argentinaavg 32¢ | $34.07 | $35.14 | +$1.06 | 50% 3193-3131 (6324) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Argentinaavg 32¢ | $22.4 | $23.1 | +$0.7 | 56% 307-245 (552) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Argentinaavg 34¢ | $5.92 | $5.75 | -$0.17 | 35% 735-1379 (2114) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Argentinaavg 32¢ | $2.35 | $2.43 | +$0.07 | 43% 808-1065 (1873) |
Invested
$546.48
Value
$541.57
PnL
-$4.91
Record
49%
611-642 (1253)
rayvanmechelenCTRInvested
$487.03
Value
$477.2
PnL
-$9.83
Record
6%
17-277 (294)
VeryLucky888Invested
$335.1
Value
$330
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
1030-921 (1951)
Invested
$44.02
Value
$44.02
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
1849-1555 (3404)
Invested
$34.07
Value
$35.14
PnL
+$1.06
Record
50%
3193-3131 (6324)
Invested
$22.4
Value
$23.1
PnL
+$0.7
Record
56%
307-245 (552)
Invested
$5.92
Value
$5.75
PnL
-$0.17
Record
35%
735-1379 (2114)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.43
PnL
+$0.07
Record
43%
808-1065 (1873)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.