Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will Argentina vs. Uruguay end in a draw?
Resolved No. 52% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
29
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$23.4K
-$936.45
Smart Money Signal
15 of 29 top traders (52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 73.2¢ | $6.3K | $7.2K | +$915.9 | 54% 2013-1746 (3759) |
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 | Noavg 61¢ | $2.0K | $3.2K | +$1.3K | 51% 3833-3620 (7453) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 76¢ | $2.4K | $3.0K | +$723.82 | 53% 1179-1029 (2208) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 72¢ | $1.8K | $2.4K | +$683.13 | 53% 6885-6020 (12905) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 75.5¢ | $1.7K | $2.3K | +$561.86 | 60% 3726-2536 (6262) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Yesavg 29.1¢ | $3.7K | $1.6K | $-2.2K | 56% 5043-4004 (9047) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 79.7¢ | $1.3K | $1.6K | +$319.65 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 29.1¢ | $2.5K | — | $-2.5K | |
GC GC-P | Noavg 75.5¢ | $1.3K | $1.8K | +$435.25 | 36% 317-553 (870) |
TO topdogbigboi | Noavg 68.4¢ | $686.37 | $995.85 | +$309.48 | 37% 819-1385 (2204) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Yesavg 31¢ | $2.3K | — | $-2.3K | 36% 910-1584 (2494) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Noavg 81.5¢ | $350.47 | $298.99 | -$51.48 | 51% 2364-2297 (4661) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Yesavg 32.8¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | 37% 924-1557 (2481) |
NO NotJump | Noavg 70.5¢ | $254.49 | $207.93 | +$57.22 | 53% 750-669 (1419) |
VE VenusianCTR | Yesavg 33.5¢ | $763.03 | — | -$763.03 | 36% 890-1596 (2486) |
 dips. | Noavg 83.8¢ | $136.34 | $162.74 | +$26.4 | 47% 860-963 (1823) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Yesavg 37.6¢ | $682.28 | — | -$682.28 | 48% 852-928 (1780) |
LI LimousinCTR | Yesavg 30.7¢ | $554.21 | — | -$554.21 | 36% 879-1566 (2445) |
SU suitcase6628 | Noavg 64¢ | $64 | $100 | +$36 | 64% 527-296 (823) |
 tradecraftCTR | Yesavg 29¢ | $101.72 | — | -$101.72 | 29% 298-747 (1045) |
SU suntoriCTR | Yesavg 19¢ | $120.74 | — | -$118.33 | 46% 2333-2789 (5122) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $35.42 | $46 | +$10.58 | 45% 224-272 (496) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Yesavg 32¢ | $154.28 | — | -$154.28 | 35% 424-772 (1196) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $19.02 | $23.78 | +$4.76 | 48% 1014-1100 (2114) |
 SecondhandvinylCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30.3¢ | $48.4 | — | -$48.4 | 74% 207-71 (278) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.5¢ | $44.36 | — | -$44.36 | 50% 3526-3585 (7111) |
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $1.59 | — | -$1.59 | 62% 186-114 (300) |
Invested
$6,314.06
Value
$7.2K
PnL
+$915.9
Record
54%
2013-1746 (3759)
Invested
$1,965.27
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
51%
3833-3620 (7453)
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,352.25
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$723.82
Record
53%
1179-1029 (2208)
Invested
$1,756.62
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$683.13
Record
53%
6885-6020 (12905)
Invested
$1,736.12
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$561.86
Record
60%
3726-2536 (6262)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$3,740.99
Value
$1.6K
PnL
$-2.2K
Record
56%
5043-4004 (9047)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,339.75
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$435.25
Record
36%
317-553 (870)
Invested
$686.37
Value
$995.85
PnL
+$309.48
Record
37%
819-1385 (2204)
Invested
$2,277.16
Value
—
PnL
$-2.3K
Record
36%
910-1584 (2494)
Invested
$350.47
Value
$298.99
PnL
-$51.48
Record
51%
2364-2297 (4661)
Invested
$1,173.72
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
37%
924-1557 (2481)
Invested
$254.49
Value
$207.93
PnL
+$57.22
Record
53%
750-669 (1419)
Invested
$763.03
Value
—
PnL
-$763.03
Record
36%
890-1596 (2486)
dips.Invested
$136.34
Value
$162.74
PnL
+$26.4
Record
47%
860-963 (1823)
Invested
$682.28
Value
—
PnL
-$682.28
Record
48%
852-928 (1780)
Invested
$554.21
Value
—
PnL
-$554.21
Record
36%
879-1566 (2445)
Invested
$64
Value
$100
PnL
+$36
Record
64%
527-296 (823)
tradecraftCTRInvested
$101.72
Value
—
PnL
-$101.72
Record
29%
298-747 (1045)
Invested
$120.74
Value
—
PnL
-$118.33
Record
46%
2333-2789 (5122)
Invested
$35.42
Value
$46
PnL
+$10.58
Record
45%
224-272 (496)
Invested
$154.28
Value
—
PnL
-$154.28
Record
35%
424-772 (1196)
poshposh<$100Invested
$19.02
Value
$23.78
PnL
+$4.76
Record
48%
1014-1100 (2114)
SecondhandvinylCTR<$100Invested
$48.4
Value
—
PnL
-$48.4
Record
74%
207-71 (278)
Invested
$44.36
Value
—
PnL
-$44.36
Record
50%
3526-3585 (7111)
Invested
$1.59
Value
—
PnL
-$1.59
Record
62%
186-114 (300)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
GoalLineGhost
No — $7.2K
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465
No — $3.2K
VeryLucky888
No — $3.0K
cigarettes
No — $2.4K
NM-P
No — $2.3K
RN1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
GC-P
No — $1.8K
topdogbigboi
No — $995.85
LightParadox
CTRYes — $0
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
No — $298.99