FAA outage attributed to a foreign actor?

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 97¢ · $11K held · ends Dec 1

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

$108.17

Smart Money Entry

95¢ → 97.2¢

+2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares11,060

Combined PnL+$340.59

Yes6 traders

Total Value$430.27

Total Shares12,606

Combined PnL-$232.42

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x9112edc7d8a99ce2d688b8e1c6ab889f30d1642	Noavg 94.7¢	$4.1K	$4.2K	+$105.76	— 8-7 (15)
Car	Noavg 94.4¢	$4.6K	$3.5K	+$196.43	68% 1406-649 (2055)
StarMaster	Noavg 95.6¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$14.41	— 6-5 (11)
PA PacersThreeandahalf	Noavg 97¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$1.5	61% 1027-652 (1679)
Tenebrus7	Noavg 94.8¢	$1.5K	$372.23	+$23.29	8% 4-44 (48)
paddaaCTR	Yesavg 5.4¢	$500	$331.8	-$168.2	60% 503-336 (839)
Slowroasted	Noavg 97¢	$242.5	$241.5	-$1	— 2-0 (2)
HU hugecaulkCTR	Yesavg 4.7¢	$132.76	$80.74	-$52.02	27% 8-22 (30)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$14.93	$8.73	-$6.2	39% 3599-5657 (9256)
GR grothCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$12	$7.2	-$4.8	10% 5-47 (52)
0X 0xe639e41094bbeae18g3e6d1790c17299183f082a<$100	Noavg 94.1¢	$4.49	$4.61	+$0.12	80% 132-32 (164)
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 92¢	$1.54	$1.61	+$0.08	10% 15-130 (145)
RelaccsedCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$2.4	$1.08	-$1.32	85% 22-4 (26)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$0.6	$0.72	+$0.12	13% 76-495 (571)

0x9112edc7d8a99ce2d688b8e1c6ab889f30d1642

Invested

$4,069.34

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$105.76

Record

—

8-7 (15)

Car

Invested

$4,586.84

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$196.43

Record

68%

1406-649 (2055)

StarMaster

Invested

$1,434.11

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$14.41

Record

—

6-5 (11)

PacersThreeandahalf

Invested

$1,035.1

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$1.5

Record

61%

1027-652 (1679)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$1,464.77

Value

$372.23

PnL

+$23.29

Record

4-44 (48)

paddaaCTR

Yes

Invested

$500

Value

$331.8

PnL

-$168.2

Record

60%

503-336 (839)

Slowroasted

Invested

$242.5

Value

$241.5

PnL

-$1

Record

—

2-0 (2)

hugecaulkCTR

Yes

Invested

$132.76

Value

$80.74

PnL

-$52.02

Record

27%

8-22 (30)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.93

Value

$8.73

PnL

-$6.2

Record

39%

3599-5657 (9256)

grothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12

Value

$7.2

PnL

-$4.8

Record

10%

5-47 (52)

0xe639e41094bbeae18g3e6d1790c17299183f082a<$100

Invested

$4.49

Value

$4.61

PnL

+$0.12

Record

80%

132-32 (164)

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$1.54

Value

$1.61

PnL

+$0.08

Record

10%

15-130 (145)

RelaccsedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$1.32

Record

85%

22-4 (26)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.72

PnL

+$0.12

Record

13%

76-495 (571)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.2%

97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.