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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.

Will the FAA's nationwide ground stop be lifted by November 13, 10:30 PM ET?

Resolved Yes. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

21

No 43%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$-2.2K

Smart Money Signal

No

9 of 21 top traders (43%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%
No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders
Total Value$3.6K
Total Shares3,598
Combined PnL+$1.1K
No9 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares3,443
Combined PnL$-3.3K
Yes — 57%No — 43%
probability
Yes

Invested

$774.32

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$252.47

Record

42%

20-28 (48)

0X
0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990f
Yes

Invested

$117.04

Value

$780.28

PnL

+$663.24

Record

—

4-1 (5)

TBill1
Yes

Invested

$569.43

Value

$657.94

PnL

+$88.51

Record

3%

3-111 (114)

Car
Yes

Invested

$3,341.6

Value

$490.5

PnL

-$103.07

Record

68%

1406-651 (2057)

OK
okcoolstorybro
Yes

Invested

$455.34

Value

$464.71

PnL

+$9.37

Record

—

6-5 (11)

Lolakis
Yes

Invested

$2,595.59

Value

$113.89

PnL

+$28.3

Record

20%

8-32 (40)

XT
xtxpleasecallme
Yes

Invested

$317.62

Value

$54

PnL

-$117.68

Record

39%

3605-5672 (9277)

PB
pbshine<$100
Yes

Invested

$5.8

Value

$10

PnL

+$4.2

Record

—

9-8 (17)

HoshinoAI<$100
Yes

Invested

$27.16

Value

$0

PnL

-$49.31

Record

29%

20-48 (68)

WA
WarriorH<$100
Yes

Invested

$10.88

Value

—

PnL

-$0.68

Record

10%

15-132 (147)

SP
SpringlyFawlCTR<$100
No

Invested

$0.74

Value

—

PnL

-$0.74

Record

3%

7-263 (270)

StarMasterCTR
No

Invested

$191.8

Value

—

PnL

-$191.8

Record

—

7-5 (12)

ME
Melody626CTR
No

Invested

$625.64

Value

—

PnL

-$625.64

Record

57%

472-359 (831)

HorribleWorkCTR
No

Invested

$996.31

Value

—

PnL

-$992.78

Record

0%

0-78 (78)

PV
pvc975
Yes

Invested

$201.97

Value

—

PnL

+$0.61

Record

99%

324-3 (327)

0X
0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR
No

Invested

$500.89

Value

—

PnL

-$500.89

Record

5%

3-55 (58)

CA
cashyCTR
No

Invested

$930

Value

—

PnL

-$930

Record

0%

0-42 (42)

clazzy1CTR<$100
No

Invested

$65.99

Value

—

PnL

-$4.8

Record

10%

5-44 (49)

88
881112CTR
No

Invested

$160

Value

—

PnL

-$160

Record

1%

4-423 (427)

smellyEllie
Yes

Invested

$161.72

Value

—

PnL

+$338.44

Record

41%

9-13 (22)

FL
FlobodanCTR<$100
No

Invested

$24.67

Value

—

PnL

+$63.35

Record

—

2-6 (8)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x1f03f750...2581e0
Slug
faa-nationwide-ground-stop-lifted-by-november-13-1030pm-et

Traders in this Market

probability

Yes — $1.0K

+$252.47
0X

0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990f

Yes — $780.28

+$663.24

TBill1

Yes — $657.94

+$88.51

Car

Yes — $490.5

-$103.07
OK

okcoolstorybro

Yes — $464.71

+$9.37

Lolakis

Yes — $113.89

+$28.3
XT

xtxpleasecallme

Yes — $54

-$117.68
PB

pbshine

Yes — $10

+$4.2

HoshinoAI

Yes — $0

-$49.31
WA

WarriorH

Yes — $0

-$0.68
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