Will it be confirmed that maintenance, an upgrade or another planned change to an FAA or contractor system caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop on November 13?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 82¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 1

Yes82¢No18¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$470.23

Smart Money Entry

77.4¢ → 81.5¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes82%

No19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,303

Combined PnL+$535.87

No5 traders

Total Value$448.69

Total Shares2,466

Combined PnL-$65.63

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990f	Yesavg 84.1¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$155.36	— 4-1 (5)
0x9112edc7d8a99ce2d688b8e1c6ab889f30d1642	Yesavg 66.2¢	$618.78	$850.44	+$231.66	— 8-7 (15)
CarCTR	Noavg 20.3¢	$456.98	$413.26	-$39.07	68% 1406-649 (2055)
Dr.mett	Yesavg 66.3¢	$351.16	$306.79	+$158.38	— 11-2 (13)
HoshinoAI<$100	Yesavg 89.5¢	$94.17	$75.92	-$9.53	31% 20-45 (65)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 24.1¢	$57.38	$27.79	-$4.42	39% 3599-5657 (9256)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$23.92	$5.64	-$16.18	16% 22-118 (140)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$3.8	$1.2	-$2.6	12% 20-144 (164)
smellyEllieCTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$4.16	$0.8	-$3.36	45% 9-11 (20)

0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990f

Yes

Invested

$1,646.68

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$155.36

Record

—

4-1 (5)

0x9112edc7d8a99ce2d688b8e1c6ab889f30d1642

Yes

Invested

$618.78

Value

$850.44

PnL

+$231.66

Record

—

8-7 (15)

CarCTR

Invested

$456.98

Value

$413.26

PnL

-$39.07

Record

68%

1406-649 (2055)

Dr.mett

Yes

Invested

$351.16

Value

$306.79

PnL

+$158.38

Record

—

11-2 (13)

HoshinoAI<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.17

Value

$75.92

PnL

-$9.53

Record

31%

20-45 (65)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$57.38

Value

$27.79

PnL

-$4.42

Record

39%

3599-5657 (9256)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$23.92

Value

$5.64

PnL

-$16.18

Record

16%

22-118 (140)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Invested

$3.8

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$2.6

Record

12%

20-144 (164)

smellyEllieCTR<$100

Invested

$4.16

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$3.36

Record

45%

9-11 (20)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.